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Stick a fork in the Iowa caucuses

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Today's Agenda

Enough, already.

Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

Io-what on Earth Is Going On?

In these deeply polarized times, it's refreshing to see a nation come together as one and yell, like we're in some kind of infomercial, "There's got to be a better way!"

For nearly 50 years, America has kicked off presidential elections in Iowa, where the parties hold "caucuses" to select nominees. The true origin of the word "caucus" has been lost to time, but scholars believe it is derived from the Latin term for "goat rodeo." People gather in small groups to repeatedly play musical chairs, followed by arguments over who will cut the most lawns. The winner's favorite candidate wins one (1) delegate. Or something. Again, no one really knows. This year's caucus was made extra complicated and weird by the introduction of an app — called "Shadow," of all things — that was supposed to quickly tabulate results but instead kept sending Hawaiian pizzas to Pete Buttigieg headquarters. The South Bend mayor declared himself the winner of the caucuses, but as of this writing we are still awaiting results — any results, even partial ones — from the state.

It's a colossal omnishambles that follows lesser Charlie Foxtrots in Iowa's 2012 and 2016 caucuses, notes Jonathan Bernstein. For some reason, America holds Iowa's status as the first-in-the-nation voting state holy. President Donald Trump, while mocking the Dems for their failings, promised to keep Iowa first. But this latest fiasco makes a strong case, Jonathan writes, for revisiting either Iowa's primacy, or at least that wacky caucus system. And some change has already come of this: Nevada will not be using Shadow for its caucus on Feb. 22.

Further 2020 Reading: Trump's growing popularity is a far bigger problem for Dems than any Iowa troubles. — Ramesh Ponnuru

Deadly Virus Has Silver Linings

It's been almost a fortnight since China ordered 50 million people not to leave town, trying to stop the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. That's roughly how long it takes for symptoms to appear, meaning we'll soon know if this mega-quarantine worked. Along with the travel freeze has come a slowdown in business, including automobile production. This sounds bad until you realize China was making far too many cars, writes Anjani Trivedi. Lots are full of millions of autos that will never be sold, and yet Beijing kept letting factories crank them out. The virus has been a gift to the industry.

Stock markets have fully embraced the disease's upside, too. Sure, it's scary, but it also means even more easy money from central banks, so we might as well buy stocks, writes John Authers.

The Trump administration apparently also sees opportunity here; Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross claimed, wrongly, it will bring factory jobs to America. Trump wouldn't be the first to use an epidemic as an excuse for protectionism, notes Stephen Mihm. It's a not-so-proud tradition going all the way back to the bubonic plague in the Middle Ages.

Bonus Virus Reading: Even after the virus peaks, oil will still struggle from oversupply and lack of demand. — Clara Ferreira Marques

Boris vs. the High-Speed Rail

Part of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's pitch for both Brexit and for his own premiership is the promise that wealth will spread to the U.K.'s economically struggling north. On paper, the massive HS2 high-speed rail project, which promises to make north-south travel fast and easy, would seem to help with this promise. In reality, the project is turning out to be an expensive boondoggle that won't help the highlands any time soon, writes Chris Bryant. Johnson, who clearly does not know the First Law of Holes, needs to put his shovel down before the U.K. is in too deep.

Further Brexit Reading: Brexit has brought the EU closer together, giving it negotiating power against the U.K. — Lionel Laurent

Telltale Charts

This chart of Alphabet Inc.'s revenue breakdown seems to have plenty of detail, until you realize there are many billions of dollars in those pie slices, along with too much mystery about their composition, writes Tim Culpan. Google's parent is still leaving investors in the dark.

Trump is banning immigration from Nigeria, but Nigerians are among America's most successful immigrant groups, writes Justin Fox. We need more of them.

Further Reading

For history's sake, it would be better for Republican senators to explain their Trump acquittal by falsely saying they don't believe the evidence than by saying they think his misdeeds aren't impeachable. — Noah Feldman

After promising to fight corruption, Mexican President Andres Manuel LopezObrador is breeding it. — Shannon O'Neil

America must help fight Georgia's slide into authoritarianism. — Eli Lake

BP can afford to spend more to shrink its carbon footprint. Rival Royal Dutch Shell is doing more. — Chris Hughes

ConocoPhillips is being punished for missing earnings when it should be rewarded for managing its balance sheet. — Liam Denning

Mike Ashley's gamble on luxury bag-maker Mulberry looks like a good one. — Andrea Felsted

Big green bond funds are favoring performance over purity to attract converts. — Brian Chappatta

ICYMI

Tesla Inc. out-of-the-money call options rose 10,000%.

Tesla has doubled this year and is now more overbought than peak Bitcoin.

America may soon have the world's oldest nuclear power plants.

Kickers

Taiwan claw machines are offering hand sanitizer and masks instead of toys. (h/t Mike Smedley)

Scientist gets brain implants to cure his alcoholism. (h/t Scott Kominers)

Nervous cheetah gets an emotional support dog.

Rare cave salamander, which is not dead, sits immobile for seven years.

Note: Please send support dogs and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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