Quarantining 60 million people living around the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak has certainly been controversial, though the policy does have one notable fan: the World Health Organization. By locking down Hubei province and its capital Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, China prevented hundreds of thousands of additional infections. That's what WHO Assistant Director-General Bruce Aylward said in Beijing this week after leading a team of experts to Wuhan. President Xi Jinping will be glad to hear that. In a speech published this month, Xi said it was he who ordered the quarantine. It's hard to imagine anyone else in the country having the authority to make a decision that big. Xi is the most powerful leader China has had in decades. Without someone wielding that kind of clout, it's possible the Hubei quarantine wouldn't have happened, especially given the toll of human tragedy the province has borne these past many weeks. The same could be said of Beijing's push to restart the country's factories, even at the risk of spreading infections. And as the virus's transmission in South Korea, Italy and Japan begins to grab headlines, the Hubei quarantine prompts another question. Which countries would be willing to take as drastic a step as China did, if that's what was needed? That's not to say China's system of governance is better at dealing with epidemics. For all the praise Beijing's gotten for its response – much of it deserved – there's just as much to be said about how the initial days of the outbreak could have been better handled. Could this outbreak have been better controlled if the danger was recognized sooner and the public warned earlier? As the coronavirus becomes more and more global and not just a crisis for China, these are questions that will come increasingly to the fore. Xi Jinping has his temperature taken in Beijing on Feb. 11. Source: Xinhua News Agency Economic Impact Starting Saturday with a survey of manufacturers, China is scheduled to begin releasing economic data that more wholly reflects the effects of the coronavirus. And though we don't know what exactly the numbers are yet, it's pretty safe to assume they'll be bad. A range of early indicators already suggests the outbreak crippled production and consumption during February. Economists have already begun cutting their forecasts for first-quarter growth, with Goldman Sachs lowering its estimate to 2.5%. That's less than half the 6% pace recorded in the fourth quarter. And while Beijing's rapid roll-out of measures ranging from tax cuts to more lending for small businesses should help cushion the blow, it does also highlight how bad the outlook is. Hong Kong Stimulus Hong Kong's situation is possibly worse. Its Financial Secretary Paul Chan has described the city's economic challenges as "tsunami-like." The combination of street protests and the coronavirus have indeed put Hong Kong on track for back-to-back years of economic contraction. This week, Chan unveiled what the city plans to do about it. The steps outlined in the city's annual budget include guaranteeing loans for businesses, various tax cuts and giving $1,280 to every permanent resident 18 and older. The result is a record $17.8 billion budget deficit for the coming year. In a separate statement, Chief Executive Carrie Lam gave a nod to unusual largess of the spending, but noted that these are "unprecedented times." Streaming Video The coronavirus has made face-to-face interaction a challenge, be it for school, work or just to see a friend. Many have adapted by moving onto video streaming services. Take for example Innocare Pharma, a Chinese biotech firm looking to raise as much as $300 million in an initial public offering in Hong Kong. The company this week canceled all its investor meetings for the sale and is looking instead to speak to potential buyers of its shares by video and phone. The same is true for education. With many schools closed, teachers are using e-learning platforms to reach their students. Even after hours, when the urge to go clubbing begins to itch, there's now a streaming option. One Third, one of Beijing's hottest night clubs, generated $285,000 in tips on a recent weekend during a five-hour set broadcast over Bytedance's Douyin video service. Drinks you'll have to mix on your own, of course. Climate Danger The coronavirus is an obviously pressing short-term risk for China. Longer-term, things are no less tricky. A study published this week by Verisk Maplecroft ranked China's Pearl River Delta as the world's most at-risk urban center to rising sea levels. The region includes the cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau and is home to corporate titans such as Tencent, Huawei and BYD. By 2100, it could also be under 2 meters of water, according to the risk advisory company. But there's still time and China does pride itself on long-term planning. Indeed, Beijing already has grand plans for the region. Released last year, the "Greater Bay Area" initiative aims transform the Pearl River Delta into a hub that rivals California's Silicon Valley. Hopefully, that also translates into action sooner rather than later. Eighty years is a long time but 2 meters is also a lot of water. What We're Reading And finally, a few other things that got our attention: The best in-depth reporting from Asia Pacific and beyond, delivered to your inbox every Friday. Sign up here for The Reading List. |
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