| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a well-diversified portfolio of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda They're everywhere. Photographer: IAN KINGTON/AFP/Getty Images Bond Bubbles Are Inflating in Weird New Places It's hard to think of a market more boring than muni bonds, the room-temperature tapioca pudding of investments. I mean, come on: They're bonds issued by state and local governments to raise money for sewers and roads and I fell asleep halfway through this sentence. People buy them for safety and to avoid taxes. Buckle up! Sure they occasionally go kablooey, but not often. Ah, but lately — because everyone is scratching for yield the way people in deserts suck cacti for water — muni bonds are displaying what almost looks like a pulse. In fact, after an almost Tesla-like rally, they may be downright dangerous, warns Brian Chappatta. For one thing, they no longer offer much yield: That leaves holders with less income and more vulnerability to sudden changes in market mood. And many investors have crowded into the riskier corners of the muni market, where future Jefferson Counties await. These offer slightly more yield, but maybe not enough to account for the risk (see "kablooey" above). Even too much tapioca can give you a bellyache. The 2020 Race, Now With More Chaos It's been almost 48 hours since Iowans caucused for the Democratic presidential candidates, and we still don't know who won. Such delays happen in democracies, but the unusually chaotic nature of this outcome means the broader race is still completely up for grabs, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Iowa usually sets a narrative for the days that follow. That's not happening this time. One candidate possibly getting robbed here is former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. He currently leads Senator Bernie Sanders in the delegate count but can't really claim victory (not that he hasn't tried). Buttigieg has the thin political resume and soaring-yet-folksy rhetoric of another Midwestern politician, whose name rhymes with "Shmarock Shmobama," notes Francis Wilkinson. These are strengths, obviously, but also potential weaknesses: Buttigieg may be going for the White House a little prematurely, with a message that is, ironically, behind the polarized times. There's a lot riding on this, obviously. For one thing, defeating Trump in November will help ensure impeachment continues to be a thing presidents need to fear, writes Noah Feldman. If Trump and Senate Republicans who vote to acquit him today (a group that doesn't include Mitt Romney) win re-election, then impeachment will forever be defanged. Defeating Trump won't be easy, though; he has not only the markets but also luck on his side, writes John Authers. BREAKING: Trump Lies About Thing Trump's biggest vulnerability may be health care, which voters consider the biggest issue, and on which Trump consistently gets poor marks. Relentlessly try to strip health care from 20 million people, and you never hear the end of it. That's probably why the many, many claims he made about health care in his State of the Union address were either lies or misrepresentations, writes Max Nisen. Trump promised to protect people with preexisting conditions, for example, but is still trying to kill Obamacare in court, which would kill such protections. He has actually shown some interest in curbing high drug prices, but his efforts have been half-hearted and ineffective. Coronavirus Forces Tough Choices Today the World Health Organization threw cold water on rumors a vaccine or cure for the Wuhan coronavirus was close at hand, though testing will start soon on an antiviral drug made by Gilead Sciences Inc. China wants a patent for using that drug on coronavirus, which could eat into Gilead's profits, notes Max Nisen. This sort of thing could discourage big pharma companies from developing such drugs in the future. But these are the sorts of difficult choices a crisis like this forces on governments. China has locked up an entire province to try to slow the spread of the virus, but strict quarantines and travel bans may do more harm than good at this point, writes Faye Flam. Of course, not all business is shut down in China: Factories vital to President Xi Jinping's Made in China 2025 initiative are still up and running, writes Shuli Ren. Further Coronavirus Reading: Telltale Charts Even if Google sells off some of its ad business, as it is reportedly considering doing, it will still have an enormous ad business, writes Alex Webb. Macy's Inc.'s turnaround plans are the right ones, but they follow trails rivals have already blazed and may be too late to truly help, writes Andrea Felsted. Further Reading Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should make a serious counterproposal to Trump's plan, even if it upsets his constituents. — Hussein Ibish Iraq's new prime minister may not keep the job for long, torn between reform demands and the Shiite elite. — Bobby Ghosh Kids these days have phones, and advertisers are increasingly targeting them. Only parents can stand in the way. — Alex Webb Companies will kill the apps and products you love, but should offer some compensation when they do. — Scott Duke Kominers An alarming win for a German proto-fascist politician may be short-lived. — Andreas Kluth ICYMI Tesla Inc. suffered its worst-ever sell-off. Trump may be withholding $823 million meant for clean energy. New York was America's biggest job-losing city in 2019. Kickers Pro tip: When smuggling drugs, don't label your bags "Bag Full of Drugs." (h/t Mike Smedley) Preserved footprints show Neanderthals climbing an active volcano. The grand unified theory of rogue waves. Where America's climate refugees will go as seas rise. Note: Please send refugees and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
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