How to win at sports (leagues)

MON, FEB 17, 2020

YOUR AFTERNOON NEWS UPDATE AND MARKET ACTION FROM CNBC

AS OF FRI, FEB 14, 2020 • 12:00 ET

DJIA		29398.08
		-0.09%	-25.23

S&P 500		3380.16
		+0.18%	+6.22

NASDAQ		9731.18
		UNCH	UNCH

EDITOR'S NOTE

I felt so bad for the Daytona 500 yesterday.

Here was Nascar's big moment--President Trump there to declare "Gentlemen, start your engines!" Only the second time a sitting president has done that. He even did a lap of the track in his presidential limo, the first time that's ever happened. You know a few more people than usual were tuned in to catch the action--something Nascar, which has rapidly declined over the past decade, sorely needed.

And it got rained out. So we watched the XFL instead.

Fandom should never be taken for granted. My husband was a diehard Nascar fan growing up. He even toyed with making a career out of being an analytics guy for their teams, Moneyball-style. But he--like millions of others--has since tuned out. For one, his favorite drivers (Mark Martin, then Tony Stewart) retired. More importantly, the sport alienated him. The rules kept changing and getting more complicated. They added "playoffs" that didn't make sense for the sport. Too much attention was focused on marginal drivers and made-up events ("will they make the Chase?"). It took him months to explain all the rules to me and I still never fully figured it out ("wait, why wasn't that guy on the lead lap after the pit stop?"). They made so many changes each season even he could barely keep up.

So what are the ingredients for a successful sports league? I'd argue (a) stars, (b) plotlines, (c) history and tradition*. Sound familiar? They're basically the same ingredients as make for a good soap opera.

It's why the NBA shot to stardom over the past five years, powered by breakout star Steph Curry and his Warriors. The NBA, and commissioner Adam Silver, were the envy of all the other leagues, especially the anthem-scandal-embroiled NFL. But suddenly, ratings are down sharply. And it's pretty obvious why: the Warriors era is over. The team is in tatters, in last place in the league. The Lakers story with the LeBron-A.D. powerhouse pairing is great, but not really must-watch TV until the playoffs. (Plus, the West Coast games are on way too late.)

Or look at golf: people (like me) watch when Tiger is playing, and tune out when he's not. I'm back to watching the NFL suddenly, why? Because of the phenom that is Patrick Mahomes, the breakout Kansas City QB sensation who just won the Super Bowl. Tennis? I was all over the Federer-Nadal era, but as they fade out I'll pretty much only tune in now if Nick Kyrgios is on.

Stars matter, and they've been sorely absent from one league in particular lately: the MLB. Now, the league, by not handling the Astros cheating scandal with the levity it deserves, is screwing up its tradition and history. The only thing it ironically has going for now is plotlines--namely, how many times are Astros batters going to get beaned in the head by rival pitchers this season.

And that brings me to my final point about what makes a successful sports league. You have to have all the ingredients above, just like any good show has. But--and this is key--you can't start acting like you're just another reality show on TV. You can't try to literally keep up with the Kardashians.

And this is where the MLB risks doubling down in just the wrong way: by suggesting a new playoff format with a "reality-show twist" where certain teams get to select who their opponent will be. No wonder baseball fans are outraged and disgusted by the direction the league is going lately.

Meanwhile, we'll be watching the XFL. Why? It has breakout stars, like Matt McGloin and Landry Jones. It has plotlines; the McGloin/coaching drama on Saturday made even that blowout worth watching. And it has useful innovations that make the game more fun and transparent (a "three-point-line" for conversions, safer kick returns, mic'ed up refs, sideline reporters with team access). As my husband said over the weekend, "I've learned more watching two weeks of the XFL than I did watching the NFL for twenty years."

I guarantee the NFL will (once again) be copying some of these moves, which should help make it more more watchable and successful, instead of less so. Other leagues--the MLB especially--should take note. Let's not forget the valuation of any of these sports teams depends heavily on the success of their leagues. If I were an owner, I'd try like heck to make sure I wasn't turning into the next Nascar.

Happy Presidents Day!

Kelly

*And that includes staying true to who you are. Just look at the success college's SEC has had that way, sticking to its southern image. Meantime Nascar strayed from its roots (and overspent in doing so) trying to expand in places like Chicago.

Kelly Evans
Twitter: @KellyCNBC

Instagram: @realkellyevans

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