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Coronavirus outbreak shows little sign of easing, a German political earthquake, and OPEC+ ministers meeting may not happen at all. 

More than SARS

The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak reached 910, surpassing the number that died in the 2003 SARS episode. Globally the number of cases now exceeds 40,000. Hubei province in China, the center of the outbreak, is now in the third week of an almost complete shutdown with the economic fallout for global supply chains worsening. The obvious hit to economic growth in the country will have knock-on effects for China's already stressed borrowers. With GDP possibly coming in a level lower than even the latest round of stress tests, regional banks could face a worse than worst-case scenario

AKK out

The apparently settled question of who will replace Angela Merkel as German Chancellor was blown wide open again this morning when Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced that she will step down as leader of the governing Christian Democratic Union. Her downfall was triggered when the CDU voted in a former East German region with the far-right AfD in the selection of a premier. With Merkel already making clear that her current fourth term will be her last, attention will turn to her other possible successors. Elsewhere in Europe, the Irish election saw a strong result for left-wing Sinn Fein with all parties falling far short of an overall majority, paving the way for a long and difficult road to forming a stable government. 

Not happening

The much-touted emergency meeting of OPEC+ ministers to respond to the ongoing virus-spurred drop in demand from China seems unlikely to happen at all. Russia has been resisting Saudi Arabian efforts to reduce production and seems to have rejected a proposal from OPEC technocrats to cut output by 600,000 barrels a day. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for March delivery was trading at $50.02 at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time. 

Markets slip

Global equities are showing signs of nerves at the start of the week with gauges slipping this morning. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5% overnight, while Japan's Topix index closed 0.7% lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was down only 0.1% by 5:45 a.m. with energy stocks the hardest hit. S&P 500 futures point to little change at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.573% and gold was slightly higher. 

Coming up…

There is no economic data of note today. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speak at various events later. President Donald Trump will publish his budget proposals which are expected to include funding for a mission to Mars and bring steep cuts to social programs. Democratic presidential hopefuls have their last day of campaigning ahead of tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. Allergan Plc is among the companies announcing earnings. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the weekend.

And finally, here's what Lorcan's interested in this morning

While the U.S. is busy getting to second base in the slow buildup to the 2020 election, there have been some political developments in Europe worth noting. Over the weekend the national election in Ireland saw Sinn Fein, a left-wing party that has usually been marginalised due to its connections to the IRA, win the popular vote. It seems set to finish with the second-largest number of members in parliament. The party ran on a health and housing platform, two issues that have resonated with voters. The result leaves three parties - Sinn Fein, the outgoing governing Fine Gael Party, and Fianna Fail - all with a similar number of seats and all far short of a parliamentary majority. The election results mean two things. First, the immediate future in Ireland will be dominated by talks between some very uncomfortable potential coalition partners. Second, the traditional parties will likely become more active on the issues of housing and health in the likely event that there is another election in the near future. No wonder then that Irish banks and property stocks are among the hardest hit in markets this morning. In Germany, meanwhile, the leader of Merkel's CDU party and heir designate for the chancellorship Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced she is stepping down in the wake in the wake of CDU member support for a far-right candidate in a former East-German region. For international investors, German regional elections and the availability of housing in Ireland may seem like niche issues to have to worry about. The good news is that with the ECB still on the bid for the euro area's sovereign bonds, there seems to be little reason to give them too much head space, other than to sound well informed at the water cooler.

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