Stocks brace for earnings season | JP Morgan's big trading results | How overvalued are stocks?
EDITOR'S NOTE
It's natural to feel uneasy when stocks are trading around their all-time highs and the market seems increasingly detached from reality.
Indeed, the stock market's value has never been so high relative to the output of the U.S. economy, writes CNBC's Maggie Fitzgerald.
Goldman Sachs recently put out a note showing that the equity market cap-to-GDP ratio is above 200%, an all-time high. What this means is that investors are expecting more earnings growth than companies can likely deliver in 2020. Warren Buffett and Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller have used similar metrics to gauge whether a market is overvalued.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung between gains and losses on Tuesday, but the major indexes remain near record highs.
"Such elevated valuations in past periods have weighed on equity returns over the subsequent five years and lowered the odds of positive outcomes," Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group CIO Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani wrote. "That the bulk of last year's returns came from higher valuations, and not growth in earnings, only compounds investors' concerns."
Subscribe to CNBC PRO for exclusive insights and analysis, and live business day programming from around the world.
TOP NEWS
TOP VIDEO
CNBC PRO
SPECIAL REPORTS
|
Post a Comment