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Netflix doesn’t need your dumb Golden Globes anyway

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Today's Agenda

Netflix doesn't have to worry about this guy any more.

Photographer: Handout/Getty Images North America

Netflix Will $urvive Its Awards $nubs $omehow

The Golden Globes were a huge bummer for Netflix Inc. Its award bait — "The Irishman," "Marriage Story," "The Two Popes" — was mostly ignored. Adding insult to injury, host Ricky Gervais called Martin Scorsese too small for amusement-park rides and compared Joe Pesci to Baby Yoda.

But he who laughs last laughs best, this newsletter is always telling itself when weeping at its desk. And Netflix will have the last laugh, or at least lots of money, which some say is better than laughter. That's because it's winning 2020 where it really counts: the streaming wars. As Tara Lachapelle notes, its stock is beating those of its rivals. Netflix has 158 million subscribers and a vast array of content. Its most worrisome competitor, Disney+, has maybe 25 million subscribers and fare that mainly appeals to kids and Star Wars fans.

The sheer number of adversaries is a worry for Netflix — particularly the home of the real Baby Yoda, Disney+, which built its subscriber base in a big hurry. But Walt Disney Co. is also shoveling a bunch of money into a content mill to try to match Netflix's slate. (Of course, Netflix burns mountains of cash too.) Other pretenders, from AT&T Inc.'s HBO Max to Comcast Corp.'s Peacock, haven't even launched yet. And Netflix still has the Oscars to look forward to; there may not even be a host to make fun of it.

It Takes a Village to Have an Iran Crisis

U.S.-Iran tensions continued to not de-escalate today, with Iran warning of 13 flavors of "historic nightmare" it can deliver in retaliation for the death of Qassem Soleimani. Last night, the Trump administration denied Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif a visa to attend a United Nations Security Council meeting this week. Long marginalized, Zarif could be relevant again if Iran wants to negotiate a truce with the U.S., writes Bobby Ghosh. So it makes no sense to ice him out.

The crisis is creating problems well beyond Iran's immediate neighborhood. Russia, for example, has a whole Middle East strategy built around maintaining the status quo, with Iran playing a key role, writes Leonid Bershidsky. Anything that weakens the regime's power could dramatically change Vladimir Putin's strategy.

This is also a nightmare for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, writes Therese Raphael. He wants to keep close foreign policy ties to Europe, which favors a lighter touch with Iran. But he also needs to keep Trump happy to get a splashy trade deal to help sell Brexit.

Don't Believe John Bolton's Hype

Hey, remember when they impeached Trump? You've probably forgotten about it, but very soon now there will actually be an impeachment trial in the Senate. Just today, in fact, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell claimed he has the votes to set the terms of the trial, which may not allow for witness testimony. As luck would have it, yesterday former national security adviser John Bolton said he'd testify in a Senate trial if subpoenaed. As Noah Feldman observes, Bolton is no dummy and realizes Senate Republicans aren't in a hurry to subpoena him. So he's likely trying to make sure history reflects his willingness to cooperate, even if he doesn't really mean it.

Ben Bernanke Just Wasn't Made for These Times

This week we got a blast from the past, in the form of a speech from former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Unfortunately, he sounded a bit like an unfrozen caveman central banker, writes Brian Chappatta. He encouraged everybody to stop griping about negative interest rates and seemed tone-deaf in dismissing worries about how Fed policy might worsen inequality. Fortunately, current central bankers have begun backing away from negative rates, worried they may do more harm than good.

That's not to say they're done delivering stimulus. Dan Moss points out the global economy is still not fully healthy, so we should expect plenty more of the central-bank largesse that fueled last year's massive market rally.

Telltale Charts

Economists spend an awful lot of time trying to parse inequality data, when maybe they should instead focus on happiness, which involves much more than equality, writes Leonid Bershidsky.

The market has gotten carried away about Tesla Inc.'s Chinese suppliers, warns Anjani Trivedi.

Further Reading

We can develop AI while protecting freedom and human rights. — U.S. CTO Michael Kratsios

Open protocols can make a better internet. — Elaine Ou

We're teaching people to code all wrong. — Nathan Esquenazi

A $500,000 rare-disease drug just got some competition. — Max Nisen

Capital controls are increasingly popular, but we still don't know how badly they'll hurt global trade. — Noah Smith

Japan is backsliding on reforming its business culture, and Carlos Ghosn's fall won't help. — Anjani Trivedi

ICYMI

Joe Biden is surging in Iowa.

So maybe baby powder doesn't cause cancer?

Manhattan's luxury-condo glut could take six years to clear.

Kickers

Japanese zoos' animal-escape drills are not at all hilarious. (h/t Scott Kominers)

There's no evidence local tax incentives boost economic growth.

How long will Australia be livable?

NASA has found a potentially habitable Earth-sized planet.

Note: Please send tax incentives and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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