| Trump downplays Iraq's missile attack, Ghosn on the attack as he fronts world media for the first time since his arrest more than a year ago, and mystery surrounds the plane crash in Iran. Here are some of the things people in the markets are talking about today. Backing Away President Donald Trump backed away from the precipice of war with Iran after the Islamic Republic attacked U.S. bases in Iraq with a barrage of missiles the Pentagon believes was intended to cause no casualties. In televised remarks to the nation on Wednesday, Trump defended the U.S. strike on a top Iranian general that touched off the missile barrage and said he would impose new sanctions on Tehran. But he also offered the country's regime a diplomatic opening. Any new nuclear deal, he said, must allow "Iran to thrive and prosper, and take advantage of its enormous untapped potential. Iran can be a great country." Oil slumped below $60 a barrel and gold fell. U.S. stocks advanced and Asian equities are primed to follow those moves higher when Thursday trading begins. Defiant and Brash Carlos Ghosn, the former head of Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA, appeared as energetic and combative as ever at a rowdy two-and-a-half-hour press conference in Beirut, the first since his arrest in Tokyo more than a year ago on allegations of financial misconduct. Eager to tell his story, he arrived early and tried to start ahead of schedule. He proclaimed his innocence and came out swinging at Japanese prosecutors, government officials and Nissan executives whom he accused of conspiring to topple him. He also cast disparaging remarks on the automotive alliance he formerly led, suggesting the new bosses have gotten everything wrong. He accused Japanese authorities and Nissan of having fomented a plot to overthrow him, comparing the unpredictability of his arrest to the Pearl Harbor attack. Wildfires Impact Australia's economy is likely to be further weighed down by wildfires that have scorched an area larger than the Republic of Ireland and could intensify in coming months with more hot, dry weather predicted. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees immediate economic hits to private investment and farm production, with a drag on tourism deepening over coming months. This will be partly offset by a lift in fiscal spending -- including military deployment -- translating to a positive contribution from government consumption to GDP. Traders are pricing in about 60% odds the central bank will lower interest rates by a quarter point at its Feb. 4 meeting. Iran Crash Mystery As investigators sift through the charred wreckage of a jetliner that crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, contradictory reports have emerged about what might have caused the Boeing Co. 737-800 to abruptly plunge out of the sky. Iranian authorities initially blamed "technical" causes then said an engine fire most likely led to the loss of the Ukraine International Airlines plane on Wednesday, killing all 176 people on board. The Ukrainian embassy in Tehran at first ruled out terrorism, then amended its statement to offer no comment on possible causes. As the crash of Flight 752 came hours after a barrage of Iranian missiles were fired on U.S. bases in Iraq, speculation also turned to a possible accidental attack by Tehran's own air defense system. Bond Boom South Korea's biggest arranger of offshore bond sales expects another busy year in 2020 due to a big wall of maturing debt and foreign investor demand at a time of rising uncertainties elsewhere. Citigroup said issuance in 2020 will likely reach similar levels as last year. Korean issuers sold $33.3 billion of notes abroad in 2019, only slightly below the six-year high marked in 2018, Bloomberg-compiled data show. While Asia's fourth-largest economy probably grew at the slowest pace in a decade last year, investors like it that the nation is one of only a few in Asia with double-A credit scores. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in this morning The big news in markets on Wednesday was the jump in gold. The metal soared past $1,600 an ounce on the headlines of Iran firing missiles at U.S.-Iraqi airbases in retaliation for the killing of its top general, and risk assets generally sold off. At the time of writing, prices have dipped back below $1,600. The question now is: where does gold go from here?  One chart I can't get over comes via Bespoke Investment, which shows the price of spot gold almost perfectly correlated with positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the past couple of years. In other words, Bespoke suggests, "speculators have been using trend-following strategies whereby new highs mean more buying." If that's the case then it would leave the metal vulnerable to a sharp pullback. The other thing to watch out for is what happens with real yields, or bond yields minus expected inflation. Gold's recent leg higher has been almost perfectly (negatively) correlated with those too. You can follow Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway at @tracyalloway. The best in-depth reporting from Asia Pacific and beyond, delivered to your inbox every Friday. Sign up here for The Reading List, a new weekly email coming soon. | 
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