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Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open.

Good morning. Tensions are still simmering between the U.S. and Iran, gold priced have surged and the U.K.'s Parliament gets back to work. Here's what's moving markets.

Troops

Tensions continue to simmer between the U.S. and Iran with the Pentagon moving more troops into the Middle East and denying the reports of a letter that suggested the country was planning to withdraw personnel from Iraq. Its another demonstration of how the killing of General Qassem Soleimani has left the Trump administration's Middle East strategy in tatters following years of promises to withdraw soldiers from the region. The death of Soleimani also means that Iran has lost a figurehead of its attempt to increase its influence.

Black Gold and Gold

The fallout of the U.S. airstrike continues but with a partial lull in events, markets are starting to consider the moves which have taken place. Oil, elevated since the strike was first reported, dipped back as the commodity continued to flow from the Middle East, though that could easily change should any signs emerge that the infrastructure is under threat. Perhaps more interesting is gold, which hit the highest in more than six years as investors retreated to safe havens. Goldman Sachs Inc. thinks the rally still has room to run and the metal may be on the cusp of a new bull market, though it has only been this overbought three times in the past two decades.

Parliament Returns

U.K. lawmakers will get back to work on Tuesday and start three days of debate on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal which, given the sizeable majority the Conservatives now have in the House of Commons, should pass easily. Then the attention can turn to the real task at hand, negotiating a trade deal with the European Union as British businesses, feeling ignored throughout the last three-and-a-half years of gridlock, watch closely. A budget announcement has also been put on the agenda for March 15 for those waiting to see whether election pledges will be kept on the domestic front.

Spain Vote

Spanish Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez will face a final test on Tuesday to end eight months of political gridlock in the country and form a new government, a feat he will have to pull off by the slimmest of margins. Not that this will eliminate all of the tensions that exist between the parties in the country. In order to pull off this coalition, Sanchez has had to strike a deal to co-govern with far-left Podemos and negotiated an abstention from the vote by the Catalan nationalist party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya. While a government may be formed on Tuesday, there's still plenty for investors to consider.

Coming Up…

Asian stocks staged a rebound and European stock futures are indicating the same will happen when the session starts as investors dial back some of the concern around the Middle East tensions. Eyes will again be trained on the U.K. retail sector as the first of the country's big grocers, Wm Morrison Supermarkets Plc, provides an update on Christmas trading ahead of peers Tesco Plc and J Sainsbury Plc in the next couple of days. Keep an eye, too, on Europe's technology sector, which may get a boost from the positive outlook U.S. peer Microchip Technology Inc. provided.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

Another day gone by without a retaliation from Iran means risk assets are beginning to recover a bit of pep — U.S. stocks rebounded Monday, as did their Asian counterparts Tuesday morning. But there is a lingering sense of unease with traders shifting into wait-and-see mode rather than full risk-on again. And as with many previous crises in the Persian Gulf, the divining rod they are using is the oil price — despite the impact U.S. shale capacity has had in reducing its geopolitical sensitivity. For Allianz Global Investors the figure to watch is $80 dollars per barrel. While the world can still cope with $70 per-barrel oil, at $80 it could start to meaningfully impact growth, according to the firm's strategists including Neil Dwane. Brent crude futures traded around $68 a barrel in Asia Tuesday. On many investors minds is the impact of oil on price pressure. U.S. five-year breakeven rates, a market measure of inflation expectations, are trading close to their highest since May. Fund managers positioned for muted inflation in the coming year will be hoping for a quick de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and a retreat in the global oil benchmark back toward the $60 per-barrel level.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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