China's central bank eases, more weakness in manufacturing PMIs, and Ghosn is ready to talk. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. Lending boostStocks in China got the year off to a strong start after the country's central bank reduced the reserve ratio for commercial banks by 50 basis points, a move that will release about 800 billion yuan ($115 billion) for lending. It comes as liquidity concerns remain high in the world's second-largest economy. On trade, the pressure seems to be off at the moment with President Donald Trump announcing a signing ceremony for the phase-one deal in the White House on Jan. 15, a date that China has not yet confirmed. Mixed manufacturing Factory output data from across the world showed a brighter outlook for Asian production. Purchasing managers indexes for South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan all moved above 50 in December. China's official manufacturing PMI remained at 50.2 for the month. There was a less rosy picture in Europe with the euro-area factory gauge weakening to 46.3, an 11th consecutive month for the reading signalling a contraction. The U.K. number also disappointed coming in at 47.5, with new orders plunging. Markit Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. economy is published at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time. Scores to settleAfter his stunning escape from Japan to Lebanon, former head of Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA Carlos Ghosn said in a statement that he can now "finally communicate freely with the media" for the first time since his surprise arrest more than a year ago. Ghosn's foremost aim is likely to be to rebuild his reputation, and probably settle some scores now that he is free from extradition back to Japan. That campaign will begin in earnest on Jan. 8 at a press conference where journalists will get to ask the international fugitive "how did you escape?" Markets riseStocks around the world are making a positive start to the new decade. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index climbed 0.5%. Japanese markets are closed for holiday until next week. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 1.1% higher at 5:50 a.m. with banks the strongest performer in a session that is seeing gains for every market sector. S&P 500 futures pointed to a strong open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.921% and gold also gained. Coming up…As it's Thursday, the day starts with weekly initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. which are expected to come in at 220,000, close to last week's level. Despite tomorrow being the first Friday of the month, monthly payrolls data is not due until Jan. 10. As well as the U.S. number, manufacturing PMI for Canada and Mexico are due today. At 11:30 a.m., there will be a sale of 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills, which should be a non-event after the Federal Reserve successfully headed off any year-end turmoil in funding markets. What we've been readingThis is what's caught our eye over the holidays. And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morningFutures are up this morning after an absolutely blistering 2019 that saw major indices end right near their all-time high. In terms of looking forward, it's a bit hard to get a handle on where consensus is right now. Virtually everyone is bullish on U.S. stocks. That much is obvious, though that's also true in most years. But at the same time, there's probably no analyst anywhere who would be willing to stick their neck out and predict a repeat performance of 2019. So there aren't many bears and there aren't many mega-bulls. One thing you do hear a fair amount -- and this is mostly based on talking to guests on TV -- is that 2020 could be the year where emerging market stocks finally make some serious catch-up relative to the U.S. This is based on the fact that trade tensions might be quieter, China is stimulating and the Fed does not seem inclined to hike for awhile. But it also feels like there's an element of wishful thinking to all of it. You have to figure that so many people have been overexposed to EM equities for so long, and they desperately want a year where that actually pays off, rather than the asset class just ending up as an overall portfolio drag. Not only is it hard to know the future, it's easy to imagine several different outcomes in 2020 that could be considered painful and contrarian. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. |
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