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Trump signs off on trade deal, Johnson wins crushing victory, and the Fed opens the taps.

Deal done?

President Donald Trump signed off on a phase-one trade deal with China, a move that averts the introduction of further tariffs on the Asian nation that were due to come into effect on Sunday. While the terms of the deal have been agreed, the legal text has not yet been formalized, according to people familiar with the matter. There has been no official confirmation from the White House that a deal has been done either, while Chinese media suggest there still may be more work to do

Victory

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a resounding majority in yesterday's election, with his Conservative party gaining 47 seats to 364, while the main opposition Labour party lost 59 in the 650-seat parliament. Market reaction to the result has been very positive, with the pound jumping and the FTSE 250 Index climbing to a record. Among the biggest winners are U.K. utilities, with the heavy Labour defeat removing the risk of nationalizations in the sector. Jeremy Corbyn announced he will stand down as leader of the Labour opposition. 

Liquidity

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is ready to fight any year-end liquidity risks as concerns continue about funding in the repo market. The bank said it will conduct additional repurchase agreements which would take its liquidity support for the market to over half a trillion dollars through year-end. Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed would be willing to extend its reserve management beyond the current Treasury bill purchases, if the need arose

Markets surge

The trade deal and the U.K. election results have given a boost to stocks around the world. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.5% while Japan's Topix index closed up 1.6% to reach its highest level since October 2018. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had risen 1.8% by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time, surpassing its record closing level.  S&P 500 futures pointed to a strong start to the trading day, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.892% and gold was steady. 

Coming up…

Headline November retail sales for the U.S. are expected to show a 0.5% rise when the data is released at 8:30 a.m. The import and export price index for November are also released at that time. New York Fed President John Williams is due to speak at an event later in the day. In Washington, the House Judiciary Committee is set for a final vote on articles of impeachment against Donald Trump when they reconvene at 10:00 a.m. this morning. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Luke's interested in this morning

Christine Lagarde had her debut on Thursday with her first press conference as president of the European Central Bank. And, as expected, she didn't stick just to monetary-policy. Lagarde said that exercising freedom to speak about fiscal policy was necessary because "it takes many to actually dance the economic ballet that would deliver on price stability but also employment and growth." It takes two to tango, but three for Lagarde's ballet: monetary policy, fiscal policy and structural reforms. Assessing the ECB chief's message and the market reaction to it, along with the same exercise for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press briefing this week, showcases some deeply ingrained perceptions about the global economy. Policy levers aren't being pulled in a synchronized fashion so as to adequately boost aggregate demand, as Lagarde flagged. Because of this, structural disinflationary forces are expected to be the dominant feature of the macroeconomic backdrop, a point that Powell made in his comments Wednesday. Hence 10-year U.S. inflation breakevens only pared about half their pre-Powell retreat after he basically dared breakevens to rise by reiterating a higher tolerance for inflation. Lo and behold, despite a fairly steady drumbeat of positive newsflow, 10-year Treasury yields are virtually unchanged from where they were a month ago: about 1.9%. That's despite news on President Donald Trump signing off on a deal averting a Dec. 15 tariff hike on China, and better than expected activity from the world's three major economic areas. The deafening silence of fiscal policy and the lack of coordination on pro-growth policies may help explain why so many investors have faith that the music is still playing for sovereign debt. For bonds, the message is simple: beware the ballet.

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