| Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open. Good morning. The week rolls on towards several big events as hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal remain, the U.K. election zeroes in on the key issues and impeachment looms. Here's what's moving markets. Trade Deals The clock ticks down another day towards the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. this weekend, though Chinese officials continue to express hope that a good deal will be reached in time. President Donald Trump's agriculture chief also thinks China will be spared the new tariffs as the round-the-clock talks continue. On another trade front, however, the Trump administration and House Democrats are moving closer to reaching a deal on the new NAFTA agreement. Brexit and the NHS The U.K. election campaign remains centered on the two issues that have been at the forefront throughout, Brexit and the National Health Service. Conservative leader Boris Johnson was put on the defensive by questions over a picture of a young boy lying atop clothes on a hospital floor, but his party remains firmly in the lead in the polls as we stare down the final days. For investors, the spotlight is on the pound, where investors are taking advantage of the low cost of betting on a rally and signals from technical indicators that have proved right in the past decade. Banks Bankers at two of the world's top firms will be experiencing very different festive seasons. Morgan Stanley is cutting around 1,500 jobs as part of a year-end cull, a familiar sight among investment banks dealing with a slowdown in activity in the past year. Barclays Plc, meanwhile, is promoting people to managing director as it goes against the grain by seeking to boost the size of its investment bank. All in the shadow of a major investment bank revamp at HSBC Holdings Plc. Impeachment U.S. House Democrats are planning to level two articles of impeachment at President Trump on Tuesday over abuse of power and obstruction, according to people familiar. The Democrats appear to be heading toward tightly drawn articles of impeachment and once done, the Democrat-controlled House is likely to vote to impeach before the Republican-led Senate likely votes to acquit. Expect plenty of back-and-forth between Trump and lawmakers before then. Coming Up… Similar to Monday, Asian stocks remained in a holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday and, once again, European stock futures are providing little hint on the direction. A few pieces of salient data will arrive, including the ZEW survey of economic sentiment, industrial production for France and Italy and GDP numbers for the U.K. Earnings remain relatively thin on the ground, but we will have industrial equipment rental firm Ashtead Group Plc, often a good proxy for the health of the U.S. construction industry. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning It seems momentum hedge funds really do believe in Santa Claus — at least in his traditional year-end stock rally. Their exposure to U.S. stocks has surged as American benchmarks hit record highs, according to one measure. The beta of the Hedge Fund Research Macro/CTA Index (HFRXM) — which tracks funds synonymous with trend-following quant strategies to the S&P 500 Index, is sitting near its highest level in almost two years. CTA funds have mostly missed out on the rise in American equities this year, with the HFRXM index's 3.9% gain a fraction of the more than 25% climb in the S&P 500. And investors have been voting with their feet, hedge fund managers suffered an eighth straight month of client redemptions in October, the longest stretch of withdrawals since the 2008 financial crisis, according to data from eVestment. The fast money crowd are no doubt hoping a positive outcome from trade talks and an improving global economy can reignite their lagging performance and halt outflows. But fear of missing out on any seasonal year-end rally is also likely too tough to take. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more. |
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