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Pressure on Peloton

Fully Charged
Bloomberg

Hi all, Julie here. Peloton Interactive Inc. reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company Tuesday morning, and the New York-based fitness startup is going to be doing everything it can to change the narrative following a disappointing September IPO that has seen shares decline more than 14%.

Looking beyond the numbers that will be announced, it's important to think about what's next for the company, especially if it wants to become profitable.

After first launching a bike where users could take live and on-demand classes, equipped with an instructor leading you along the way and a competitive leaderboard on your screen, it has since expanded with a treadmill. Running is by far the more popular of the two forms of exercise, leading to expectations the treadmill would outpace sales of the bike. But with a steeper price tag than the bike, at north of $4,000, there are concerns on Wall Street about how popular this product can be. Another thing that could hold back treadmill sales is a trick that I and many others use. You can simply have the app on your phone (there is a monthly fee), and set your phone or tablet on any ordinary treadmill and take a class. While it's not easy to do that with the cycling classes, the speed and inclines the instructors call out on the treadmill are the same no matter which treadmill you are on. Yes, Peloton would argue that its product is superior, which is arguably true, but is it worth spending $4,000 and taking up an even larger space in your home or apartment?

This is why some analysts like Michael Kawamoto at DA Davidson have started talking about the potential for a cheaper treadmill in 2020 and a rowing machine after that. It's still unclear when exactly these new products could launch and at what price point, but if history is any guide, it would likely be at CES, the consumer electronics show in January. I know a few people that either currently work at Peloton or have previously, and several of them have been talking about the cheaper treadmill for 2020, though they are also unaware of what the price will be.

A colleague of mine who is much savvier on the internet looked up other domain names that Peloton has taken the time to register. Now, registering a domain name doesn't mean the company is going to launch a product to go along with it, but it shows Peloton was at least thinking about it at one point. These include everything from a rowing machine to wearables, which could mean a fitness tracker like the Apple Watch or simply the heart rate monitor it already sells.

Another area for growth is international expansion. This is something that's more likely to come up in the earnings report. In recent months, Peloton launched or announced plans to launch in Canada, the U.K., and Germany, all of which are popular markets for fitness. Analysts covering the company will want more guidance on how these markets are doing to make sure Peloton isn't just a U.S. phenomenon, but a global one.-- Julie Verhage

And here's what you need to know in global technology news:

Uber Technologies Inc. missed some key metrics, including gross bookings and food delivery, in the third quarter, but told investors the ride-hailing company will make a profit for the first time in 2021.

Employees of Alphabet Inc.'s Google protested the company's deals with big oil, saying it has a responsibility to reduce climate change. The complaints add to worker criticism of the company's business with the military and immigration agencies.

TikTok, the music-video-sharing mobile app owned by China's ByteDance Inc., unveiled new tools to let third-party developers integrate their content onto its platform, seeking to deepen ties in the U.S.

 

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