Does it matter who wins the early states?

BloombergOpinion Early Returns

Jonathan Bernstein

Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. I've argued that late surges ahead of the Iowa caucuses are pretty normal and that we shouldn't assume that the candidates leading in the polls right now will be the leaders when the vote is held in February. But perhaps the more important question is: Does it matter who wins in Iowa and New Hampshire? There are basically three stories that experts tell in response to that question — and it's very hard to know which one is true. The first is about momentum. Doing well, especially beating expectations, in early states can generate news media attention and bring new resources to a candidate, which in turn can generate a surge in voter support. The classic example was Senator Gary Hart in 1984, who beat expectations by finishing second in Iowa behind the front-runner, former Vice President Walter Mondale. Even though Mondale won by a huge margin, 49% to Hart's 16%, the ensuing media coverage produced a stunning victory for Hart in New Hampshire eight days later, followed by triumphs in Vermont and Wyoming. Mondale eventually recovered and won the nomination narrowly. But it was obvious that had Hart done worse in Iowa he never would have emerged as the clear alternative. This suggests that a victory in Iowa — or even a surprising second- or third-place finish — can change everything. The second story is about the absence of momentum. A good example is the 2016 race, when Donald Trump fell short of expectations by finishing second in Iowa but won in the next several states, while Senator Ted Cruz's victory there gained him little additional support. Similarly, Hillary Clinton won very narrowly in Iowa before Senator Bernie Sanders beat her decisively in New Hampshire, but neither contest really affected the national polling trends. One study, in fact, found no momentum at all in the 2016 primaries. If that's the case this time, then former Vice President Joe Biden could retain his support regardless of what happens in the first two states; in particular, those candidates who (unlike Biden) have struggled to find black supporters could be doomed when the action shifts to more diverse states. The third story? Let's call that one "it depends." It depends, first, on how strong candidates' support is among party actors and voters. Clinton received unusually strong and early support from party actors, as her huge endorsement advantage showed, and her backers stayed with her even after Sanders's early success. The structure of the race had already been set before Iowa, so the order of the primaries and caucuses didn't matter much. Similarly, for the Republicans, the dominant factor in 2016 was saturation media coverage of Trump, which his second-place finish in Iowa didn't affect. But sometimes the situation before Iowa is much more fluid. That allowed for media-driven momentum in 1984. It can also make party-driven momentum possible. In 2004, for example, many Democratic party actors sat on the sidelines before the Iowa caucuses. Several candidates seemed acceptable to them, and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean's early appeal was intriguing. But when Senator John Kerry won in Iowa and Dean fizzled there, they moved rapidly to support Kerry, bringing with them media attention and other useful resources.  If "it depends" is the correct story, we can't know for sure how the 2020 nomination battle will play out. But it seems to me that this cycle is much more like the Democratic races in 1988 and 2004, in which attachments at this point were fairly loose and momentum very possible. If that's the case, then the relative stability of the polls so far may simply indicate that voters aren't yet engaged in a confusing contest with a record number of candidates. I think that's likely. But we won't really know until after Iowa and New Hampshire. 1. Monica C. Komer at Mischiefs of Faction on the Tunisian elections and women's political power. 2. Michael Tesler at the Monkey Cage on former Representative Katie Hill and double standards. 3. Dan Drezner on Trump and the bureaucracy.  4. Josh Putnam on the delegate threshold and winnowing. 5. Casey Burgat and Trey Billing on how to get to Capitol Hill as a staffer. 6. Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman with an Election Day preview. 7. And Michelle Goldberg on the dangers of Trump conning — and being conned.  Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.

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