Header Ads

5 things to start your day

Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open.

Good morning. It looks like investors will be kept waiting over news on a trade pact, a $100 billion chipmaker beat earnings estimates and the Bank of England's policy path is clouded by the upcoming U.K. election. Here's what's moving markets.

Trade Delay

Market sentiment took another blow on news that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may not be able to sign a partial deal until December, while two U.S. locations have been ruled out for their highly anticipated meeting. Both sides are still attempting to reach a pact that would see the U.S. dropping some tariffs on Chinese imports in exchange for Beijing resuming purchases of American farm goods. Some equity benchmarks slipped in Asia but futures in Europe are mixed, while oil held losses after snapping a three-day rally, also weighed on by indications some OPEC+ producers aren't seeking deeper output cuts.

BoE May Soften Tone

If there's one thing that can mess with a central bank's plans, its an election. The Bank of England may walk back its previous guidance that a smooth Brexit would entail higher interest rates as December's vote adds to an outlook already clouded by the divorce. Meanwhile, in Westminster, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was nursing another blow Wednesday as minister Alun Cairns quit after reports he knew about a former aide's role in the collapse of a rape trial. The opposition Labour party also saw the surprise resignation of remain-backing deputy leader Tom Watson.

Merkel's Rogues

Questions are arising over who's really in charge in Germany. For the second time in as many weeks, one of Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief cabinet members has gone rogue. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz's efforts to end years of European deadlock over a banking union was announced with fanfare Wednesday, but he hadn't cleared it with the chancellor. Speaking of Germany, the European Central Bank will pick a new board member today, with an adviser to Merkel's government touted as a likely replacement. German industrial production data later comes after better-than-expected factory numbers on Wednesday.

Tech and Tiffany 

Chip-makers and broader technology should get a boost today after Qualcomm Inc. gave a stronger-than-predicted forecast for the current quarter, indicating that smartphone demand -- fueled by new wireless technology -- may be slowly picking up after a prolonged slump. The company's shares rose 5% in extended trading. Elsewhere, Tiffany & Co. gained on a report that said the luxury jeweler asked LVMH to improve its $14.5 billion offer. Tiffany could open its books and provide confidential due diligence with a better offer, while LVMH is engaging, Reuters reported.

Coming Up…

Engineering giant Siemens AG got a huge day of European earnings up and running, saying it expects a decline in market volume for some businesses next year amid the manufacturing downturn that's gathered steam in Europe, while lender Commerzbank AG cut its 2019 net income guidance. Those still to come include grocer J Sainsbury Plc and luxury carmaker Aston Martin Lagonda amid questions over its next route to raising more cash. Other data include South Africa manufacturing and Czech and Serbian rate decisions. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

A rebound in German factory orders is adding to signs that the euro-area economy has passed the worst of its recent troubles and getting people excited again about the euro. "We've seen the low,'' wrote Standard Chartered strategists Geoff Kendrick and Steve Englander about the single currency, recommending a long position with a $1.15 target, in a note to clients Wednesday. The euro is down almost 4% against the greenback year-to-date, yet up about 1.5% since the end of September to around the $1.1060 level. The Standard Chartered pair see a Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal as potentially leading to a peak in the dollar, while a Brexit conclusion and the potential for fiscal expansion could both boost the euro in the medium term. Still, it's too early to confirm the European economy is out of the danger zone and there remains a lot of uncertainty over both Brexit and fiscal policy. The euro is in a multi-year downtrend against the dollar. A lot now depends on the vagaries of the trade negotiations -- and the hope that any China deal doesn't open up the door for a renewed focus on the trading relationship between the U.S. and Europe.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

FOLLOW US Facebook Share Twitter Share SEND TO A FRIEND Share with a friend

No comments