Outfoxing the deal master

Balance of Power From FOLLOW US SUBSCRIBE   U.S. President Donald Trump says "millions of lives will be saved" after he showed his Turkish counterpart some "tough" love over his military operation inside northern Syria. Five hours of talks yesterday in Ankara with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo yielded a deal where Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a five-day pause in his offensive in Syria against the Kurds, a group he accuses of fostering terrorism in Turkey. Problem is the terms look a lot like what Erdogan himself had proposed the day before. Namely that Kurdish militants — who have been key allies for the U.S. in the fight against Islamic State — withdraw from a safe zone that Ankara wants to create in Syria. The U.S. says no further sanctions will be imposed on Turkey. And existing penalties will be removed if a permanent cease-fire takes hold. Trump had initially given the green light for Erdogan's operation. Then, when the president came under sustained pressure at home for abandoning the Kurds, he warned Erdogan against going too hard. Now he could still end up handing the Turkish leader the outcome he's sought for years — maybe even his White House visit next month. — Rosalind Mathieson A woman stands along the side of a road on the outskirts of the town of Tal Tamr near the Syrian Kurdish town of Ras al-Ain along the border with Turkey. Click here for Bloomberg's most compelling political images from the past week. Photographer: DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP Global Headlines  Uphill task | U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is back in London as he seeks enough votes to get his newly-minted Brexit deal through a Parliament where he lacks a majority, and with his Northern Irish allies saying they can't support it. Read our exclusive account of how he pulled off the "impossible" divorce agreement with European leaders. Click here for Rob Hutton's assessment of the parliamentary math before Saturday's vote. EU leaders are still in Brussels today where they will talk about budgets and climate change. An aide's misfire | Mick Mulvaney set out to offer an impassioned defense of Trump's dealings with Ukraine, but he may have only made matters worse for his boss — and himself. The acting White House chief of staff seemed to admit what Trump had been denying for weeks: that the president offered Ukraine a quid pro quo (military aid in exchange for investigating his political opponents). He later denied it, but the damage was done. Laura Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of Defense, won't testify today as planned to House impeachment investigators. She'll appear Oct. 24 instead. China hurdle | An obstacle to extending a landmark nuclear pact between the U.S. and Russia isn't Trump or Vladimir Putin. It's China. The New START treaty, the last major arms control accord between the world's two nuclear superpowers, is set to expire in early 2021, and Trump administration officials say the agreement may not be worth extending if China isn't included. Brazil infighting | President Jair Bolsonaro is losing allies in congress as he fights over control of his party and tries to distance himself from allegations of campaign finance irregularities at last year's elections. In the past 24 hours, he's cut ties with two key lawmakers. The intra-party tensions raise questions about the prospects for Bolsonaro's ambitious reform agenda. Another term | Bolivian President Evo Morales heads into elections Sunday seeking a fourth term amid warning voter enthusiasm for South America's longest-serving leader. The lone survivor of the continent's so-called pink tide of leftist leaders from the 2000s, Morales has presided over more than a decade of strong growth, rising incomes and falling poverty, but faces growing accusations of authoritarianism. What to Watch Protesters flooded the streets of Hong Kong today, and police banned a large pro-democracy march planned for Sunday as the Asian financial hub prepared for yet another weekend of unrest. Trump's Doral golf resort in Miami will be the site of next year's Group of Seven summit, a decision that reignited claims the president's violating a constitutional prohibition against profiting from his office. Thousands of protesters cut off roads and burned debris around Lebanon last night, as anger over plans to impose a levy on WhatsApp calls escalated into demands for the government to resign. Former Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont surrendered to Belgian authorities after Spain issued a new warrant for his arrest following the sentencing of 12 of his former colleagues, El Pais reported. Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which country is cashing in on prison security by planting industrial hemp on the grounds of the main penitentiary in its capital? Tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... The animated movie "Abominable" has landed in a controversy in Southeast Asia over its display of a map of China showing the Asian giant's disputed maritime claims. A Philippines government official has backed a boycott of all movies from the production house, joining Vietnam and Malaysia in raising objections. At the center of the dispute is the film's apparent endorsement of Beijing's so-called "nine-dash line" that lays claims to 80% of the South China Sea. Abominable. Source: © 2019 DreamWorks Animation LLC   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Politics newsletter Balance of Power. You can tell your friends to sign up here.   Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022