| Let's go through this one more time: It's possible that we understand exactly how the Democratic nomination race is shaping up. But it's more likely that we don't. Everyone seems to be more or less convinced that Elizabeth Warren is now the leading candidate, or perhaps that Warren and Joe Biden are co-leaders. Pundits are asking whether Biden can survive losing Iowa and New Hampshire, and whether his big polling lead in South Carolina can hold up. Those are fair questions. But I'm going to insist – one more time – that it's still early. Take Iowa. Yes, Warren now has a slim polling lead over Biden, with everyone else far behind. But a quick check of the historical record suggests things could still change radically. Four years ago, Donald Trump and Ben Carson were locked in a tie in Iowa. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were in third and fourth. Four months later, Cruz rose from 9% to 27% to take first place in the caucuses; Rubio went from 8% to 23%, with Trump narrowly edging him out for second place. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's numbers didn't change much from October to February – but Bernie Sanders gained about 16 percentage points and almost beat her. What about 2012? Early October polling had Mitt Romney on top, followed by three candidate – Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry – who never went anywhere. Rick Santorum was in seventh place in the polls at 4%. He eventually surged to narrowly beat Romney in Iowa with almost 25% of the vote. In 2008, Barack Obama's first-place finish was about 10 percentage points higher than his early October polling numbers. But Iowa caucused a month earlier that year, so if we go back to early September, Obama was in third place, about 16 percentage points below his eventual caucus total. On the other side, Mike Huckabee was in fourth at about 10% in September and early October polls; he wound up winning the caucuses easily with 34% of the vote. In each of the last five contested Iowa caucuses, in other words, at least one candidate gained at least 15 points in the polls over the last few months. That suggests that essentially every remaining contender in the 2020 race would have enough time for a late surge. Now, I don't think that all of them are equally likely to surge. The combination of a very large field and the Democratic National Committee's new debate restrictions will make it very hard for some candidates to gather momentum. And not all surges would produce the same chances of winning. But I'd say there are somewhere between five and nine truly viable candidates at this point – start with the top nine names on the FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker, and perhaps subtract a few. Sure, maybe this time will be different and Iowa will wind up as a close race between Warren and Biden with everyone else finishing far behind and then quickly dropping out. Just don't count on it. 1. Oxana Shevel on how Trump's behavior has affected Ukraine's government. 2. John Dearborn at A House Divided with a terrific item about politicians during Watergate. 3. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Shannon O'Neil on expanding free trade without the U.S. 4. Geoffrey Skelley on where Warren's new support in the polls is coming from. 5. And Nicole Hemmer on Fox News, Trump and conspiracy theories. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
Post a Comment