| Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open. Good morning. Tensions are mounting between the U.S. and China, Turkish troops will soon be on the move and Brexit talks are devolving into a blame game. Here's what's moving markets. China Tensions This was supposed to be the week that the U.S.-China trade talks got back on track. Don't count on it, given the deteriorating relations between the two over the past 48 hours, with the U.S. cracking down on China over human rights and the National Basketball Association running afoul of Chinese sensibilities. While those two incidents ostensibly are unconnected to the negotiations that are due to resume tomorrow in Washington, investors are making it clear that they're worried. Stocks tanked in the U.S. overnight, with China-linked shares underperforming. Turkey's Incursion Turkey's planned military incursion into Syria is weighing on Turkish stock prices this week. Beyond that, the implications for global markets aren't immediately obvious, but anything that adds to instability in the region will be watched carefully by investors. Troops will be on the move "shortly," a government official said early Wednesday. The lira lost ground against the dollar after the statement. Blame Game While Brexit fatigue set in long ago for many people, the stakes are so high, with everything from flu shots to auto factories in the balance, one could be forgiven for thinking that the leaders involved can't losefocus on their goal of agreeing on a plan for the U.K.'s departure from the European Union. Alas, the news isn't encouraging. The U.K. and the EU are in an angry stalemate, with each accusing the other of refusing to budge. Trump vs Democrats We're not in the business of making predictions here at Five Things, but it seems like a fair bet that the U.S. newsflow is likely to be dominated in coming days by the impeachment fight on Capitol Hill, and we wouldn't be surprised if news stories start asking if there is a "constitutional crisis" in the works. President Donald Trump is fighting congressional Democrats at every turn, calling their impeachment inquiry invalid and unconstitutional, and the party shows no signs of backing down in its push for documents and testimony. Coming Up… Third-quarter earnings don't kick off in earnest for another two weeks, so the corporate calendar remains light. Today's only real highlight is French luxury conglomerate LVMH, which reports third-quarter sales after the close and may give a sense of how much the industry has been affected by the unrest in Hong Kong. Stocks in Asia are lower, though the declines aren't as steep as in the U.S. overnight, and European index futures point to a flat opening. Some investors have had enough, deciding that gold is the haven they need. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning. Veteran market player Ben Emons told Bloomberg Television viewers this week he sees parallels today to 2018's year-end turmoil, when U.S. stocks barely escaped entering a bear market. Followers of the Dow Jones Transportation Average -- closely watched by some as a U.S. economic leading indicator -- will understand his concern. The gauge registered its second death cross in 12 months, with its 50-day moving average closing below its 200-day equivalent. Bulls would argue that while November's instance of the bearish signal presaged last year's risk asset sell-off, previous occurrences haven't necessarily been negative. And critics of technical analysis will no doubt point to April's so-called golden cross pattern which failed to lead to sustained gains for the Dow Transports. But there are enough areas of concern in today's market -- especially the recent deterioration in economic data and ongoing trade war uncertainty -- to take seriously a negative signal from an index with a long-term pedigree. Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more. |
Post a Comment