| We must be getting closer to the primaries and caucuses, because Joe Biden's team on Tuesday began the job of lowering expectations. They're now making the case that the former vice president could still take the nomination even if he doesn't win in either Iowa or New Hampshire. As Steve Kornacki correctly says, no one has actually done this since the modern nomination system began in 1972. (And as Kornacki adds, Bill Clinton in 1992 doesn't count because all the other candidates conceded Iowa to home-state Senator Tom Harkin.) It's certainly possible for a candidate to do it. Remember, we've only had a handful of competitive nomination contests, and even fewer that lacked an overwhelming favorite. That means we've seen only a small number of the scenarios that could plausibly play out. It's easy to imagine a strong candidate with broad support finishing behind a factional candidate in Iowa and New Hampshire (or two different factional candidates) and then gaining in other states. Or two weak candidates with particular appeal in Iowa and New Hampshire could win early but fail to catch on elsewhere. Hey, if it hadn't been for his debate "glitch" in 2016, Marco Rubio conceivably could've finished second in New Hampshire after taking third in Iowa, and then won South Carolina. To be sure: There's a logic to these things, and not all scenarios are plausible. It's not just that failing to win would hurt Biden; it's that failing to win would mean someone else won, and that candidate might be well positioned to capitalize on an early victory. Plus, spin only gets you so far. If Biden can't win, then one of his big supposed advantages – his appeal to voters – will be less credible. Moreover, at this point Biden is thought by most to be the front-runner, and that could make even a strong second-place finish seem disappointing. That means the news about Biden could be quite negative until he manages to win somewhere, especially if party actors turn against him or rally to another candidate. At this point, Biden has the most party endorsements in the race. But his lead could disappear quickly if he loses twice early on. None of which is to say that Biden's people are wrong to try to lower expectations. Convincing the media that a poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire wouldn't actually be bad news for their candidate can only help. And Biden is doing well enough in all the objective indicators right now that low-balling doesn't risk taking him out of the conversation. (Someone such as Amy Klobuchar can't afford to set expectations any lower than they already are!) Odds are, though, that lowering expectations won't make much difference. If Biden does lose in Iowa, it's probably an indication that he's just not that strong a candidate; if he loses in New Hampshire, too, that impression will to some extent be confirmed. 1. Kelly Dittmar on what women candidates have to do that men don't. 2. Kara Dimitruk at the Monkey Cage on prorogation and what's happening in the U.K. 3. Also at the Monkey Cage: Alexander Kentikelenis on new leadership at the International Monetary Fund. 4. Joshua Geltzer and Ryan Goodman on President Donald Trump and the intelligence community. Don't forget that the departure of Dan Coats as director of national intelligence was announced on July 28, taking effect on Aug. 15, and Trump still hasn't nominated anyone for the post. 5. Must-read from Ariel Edwards-Levy about the nomination contest and voters. As she puts it, "there's probably no set of clear primary `lanes,' ideological or otherwise." Or to put it another way: There are plenty of potential cleavages in the party, and which (if any) will matter depends on events and candidate behavior. It's a mistake to assume that current polling and campaign dynamics will survive until Iowa. 6. Good Nate Silver item on polls that look goofy and how to read them. 7. Lydia DePillis on Trump's tariffs and all the baseball stuff made in China. 8. And Amy Erica Smith at Mischiefs of Faction on gender equality in academia. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
Post a Comment