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Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open.

Good morning. Manchester is the focus of Brexit, a report on new U.S. limits on China has spooked stocks and it's a big week for macro data. Here's what's moving markets.

Manchester is Blue

It's Man United versus Arsenal at Old Trafford tonight, but that's not the biggest event in town. The Conservative Party conference kicked off in Manchester and pound traders are braced for drama. Prime Minister Boris Johnson isn't due on the podium until Wednesday, but did answer questions on Brexit while touring a hospital in the city. He said there's a "good chance" a deal with the European Union can be reached, while people familiar with the matter said the government will present detailed proposals to break the deadlock once the show's over.

Limits Scare

Stocks turned lower on Friday just as investors in Europe were heading to the pub. That was after a Bloomberg report saying White House officials have discussed ways to limit American portfolio managers' investments in China. "This is huge," said one U.S. money manager, with it coming just as markets were growing hopeful a trade war truce could soon be announced. One positive note from the weekend was a Treasury official commenting that there are no plans to stop Chinese companies from listing on U.S. exchanges. 

China Stocks Follow

Chinese stocks followed Europe's lead lower on the flow limits report, although volatility may have been higher due to thin liquidity ahead of a week-long holiday, as well as the closing of positions typically seen at quarter-end. Hong Kong was also in focus again as demonstrators marched without permission on Sunday after an approved rally the day before. Shares in Japan slipped, while European stocks reopen later on course to record a third-straight quarter of gains.

Oil, Copper Supported

Oil was steady after the biggest weekly loss since July. The trade worries are being weighed against continued drama surrounding Saudi Arabia: The latest news being that Yemen's Houthi rebels – which claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Aramco's energy facilities two weeks ago -- said they'd captured soldiers from the kingdom during an operation near the border. Elsewhere in commodities, copper futures were higher after a 6.8-magnitude earthquake was recorded in Chile, a key producer of the base metal. 

Coming Up...

There's a whole load of Eurozone macroeconomic statistics to be released later, including inflation and unemployment from Germany, where fears of a recession continue to mount. Data earlier showed China's manufacturing sector improved in September, and with it being a non-farm payrolls week, here's a guide to the big events of the next five days. Monday's corporate earnings schedule is almost empty. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the weekend.

And finally, here's what Garfield Reynolds is interested in this morning

With memories fresh of the meltdown that hit stock markets about a year ago, traders are expecting central banks to keep their fingers on their rate-cut triggers as the trade war bruises the global economy. Australia -- seen as a bellwether for its close ties to China and its currency role as the world's fifth-most traded -- is widely expected to cut its benchmark to a skinny 0.75% Tuesday. That's even with its economic surprise gauge hitting a two-year high and RBA Governor Philip Lowe declining to signal last week that an easing was coming. Those expectations could force the RBA's hand. Especially with traders pricing in a 30 basis-point drop in the average developed-market central bank rate over the coming year. Central banks may decry the need for fiscal stimulus and raise doubts that monetary policy can do much more to help, but traders expect they will keep using the only tools they have.

Garfield Reynolds is a Markets Live reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Sydney.

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