Trump tweets rock markets
EDITOR'S NOTE
I was gonna write about getting back on social media today, but I've gotta save that for another time now (maybe a bonus Saturday newsletter?).
The Dow's down more than 450 points as I write this and it's been a dizzying morning of trade developments between the U.S. and China.
So let's quickly review:
> At around 6:30 a.m. ET, China's mouthpiece, Hu Xijin of the Global Times, tweeted that "Beijing will soon unveil a plan of imposing retaliatory tariffs on certain US products." Futures wobbled a bit but largely took that in stride. By the time James Bullard finished his CNBC interview, just before 8 a.m., Dow futures were up nearly 70 points.
> At 8:01 a.m., futures suddenly tanked. That was when China said it in fact plans to raise tariffs on about $75 billion of U.S. goods, taking effect Sept. 1 and Dec. 15.--the same days our tariffs on China take effect. Dow futures slipped to a loss of around 150 points.
> At 10 a.m., Fed Chair Powell's much-awaited speech crossed the wires, to mixed reviews. Some found it dovish (John Briggs of NatWest: "I think it's slightly dovish...He left the door open for more"), others hawkish (Andy Brenner of National Alliance: "If this is all we get...Powell's speech is a dud. Expect the President to be tweeting up a storm."). The Dow fluctuated to the upside and hit session highs just before 11 a.m.
> Brenner proved prophetic; Trump at 10:53 tweeted "As usual, the Fed did NOTHING!"
> And immediately following that, at 10:59 a.m., Trump tweeted "American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to China tariffs this afternoon." That's when stocks really began to tank.
> Trump also added: "I am ordering all carriers, including FedEx, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!)."
Whew. Got all that? Now analysts are off and running with what this all means for more Fed rate cuts (the odds just went up), Powell's job security, the U.S. economy (Moody's Analytics saying it ups the odds of recession), and so forth.
And that's exactly where we'll pick things up at 1 p.m. See you then!!
Kelly
P.S: h/t to Patti Domm on all this reporting today
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