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Trade mood swings again

Five Things - Asia
Bloomberg

Trump's trade deal optimism cheers markets, the G-7 wraps up and a family with a $38 billion fortune has a lot to lose from Hong Kong's protests. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

'They Want to Make a Deal'

After days of escalating tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump said China wants to make a trade deal "very badly." U.S. stocks rallied on the president's optimistic comments. "The tariffs have hit them very hard," Trump said of China during a press conference from the Group of Seven meeting in Biarritz, France. China's top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, said: "We are willing to solve the problem through consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude," according to a Caixin report. "We firmly oppose the escalation of the trade war." Trump noted Liu's call for "calm," saying "I agree with him."

U.S. Stocks Rally

Asian stocks are set to gain at the open Tuesday after all three main U.S. equity indexes climbed in thin trading. Gains arrived thanks to comments from Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron, who also said things were moving forward between the U.S. and China. The broad-based equity rally was led by tech shares, especially semiconductor stocks. The dollar strengthened and 10-year Treasury yields held close to a three-year low. Asian equities are set to open higher. The trade war's latest twists and turns punctuated an already tumultuous August, with markets buffeted by signs of slowing global economic growth and violent protests in Hong Kong. Regardless of Monday's developments, the risk of U.S. recession may have crept higher after Trump announced fresh levies on Chinese imports Friday.

G-7 Wraps Up

Instead of the usual detailed communique, France's Macron wrapped up this year's Group of 7 meeting with a one-page statement that he said he'd written himself. The document endorses fair and open global trade, and calls for reforms of the WTO to boost intellectual property protection and tackle unfair trading practices more quickly. Leaders also agreed Iran shouldn't obtain nuclear weapons and underlined the importance of the 1984 joint declaration between China and the U.K. over Hong Kong, which sets out the city's distinct rights and freedoms from the rest of China. Meanwhile, Trump is pitching for next year's G-7 summit to be held at his Miami golf resort. "I don't want to make any money," he said, estimating that he was losing $3 billion to $5 billion by serving as president. 

Hong Kong's Low-Key Billionaires

As Hong Kong billionaires go, Li Ka-shing might be the most famous. But the Kwoks, who built Sun Hung Kai Properties into Hong Kong's largest developer, control a $38 billion fortune that's by far the city's biggest. It's also the most exposes to the city's historic demonstrations. While the protests were triggered by a controversial extradition bill, many protesters have cited sky-high home prices, a widening wealth gap and the outsized political influence of property tycoons as reasons why they've taken to the streets for 12 straight weeks. And like many other rich clans in Hong Kong, the Kwoks will have to navigate the increasingly combustible environment while also wading through complex succession issues. Read more about Asia's richest families here.

Singapore's Wave of Bad Debt

Singapore firms are likely to see more soured debt as the trade-reliant economy takes a hit from U.S.-China tensions. That's the view of debt restructuring experts, for whom more bad debt could mean increased business. Singapore's government cut its forecast for economic growth this year to almost zero, and weak export data have stoked fears of a recession. The nation has already been rocked by the high-profile collapse of water treatment firm Hyflux, while an increase in soured debt is likely to spell more pain for lenders and bond investors. Singapore's prime minister said this month that there is no need yet for economic stimulus, but the government will "promptly respond" if the situation worsens.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the weekend.

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in this morning

You can always count on the currency market for some drama, and Monday's action didn't disappoint. The Turkish lira suddenly plunged 12% against the Japanese yen. The move coincided with a time that's now notorious for lack of liquidity in Asian currency markets—when FX trading firms in Japan typically review their retail clients' accounts. If those trading firms find big mark-to-market losses, they'll ask investors to either top up collateral or close the position entirely. It's these morning "loss-cuts" that often result in huge bouts of volatility as thousands of Mrs. Watanabes close out loss-making positions.

There's a tendency to focus on Japan's retail currency trading and its impact on markets only when it goes awry. But what's really interesting to me is the impact of that trading strategy when it goes right. Having a dependable pool of retail investors ready to buy the dip in high-yielding currencies and short the yen effectively caps the Japanese currency's strength. You have to wonder what the yen would look like without that pool of investors.

You can follow Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway at @tracyalloway.

 

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