That Democratic fight over an impeachment inquiry? It’s a useful fiction.

BloombergOpinion Early Returns

Jonathan Bernstein

Sometimes, it all comes down to semantics. Reporters have noted a spike in the number of House Democrats supporting an impeachment inquiry. There are now, by one count, 116 of them, just shy of a majority of the party. That's up quite a bit from a couple weeks ago. But the full story is a little more complicated. It turns out that those who don't support an impeachment inquiry instead favor continuing the current investigations. And as House lawyers basically admitted last week, that amounts to the same thing. It was once the case that the House Judiciary Committee required special grants of power to move toward impeachment, so beginning an inquiry had serious substantive implications. But that hasn't been true for a while. Under current House rules and procedures, officially opening an impeachment inquiry is, for the most part, a formality.  So all those lawmakers who say they oppose an inquiry aren't really preventing anything, and all those who have publicly supported an inquiry aren't really asking for anything that's not happening now (aside from perhaps a symbolic vote).  The illusion of a dispute is, however, useful for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. A formal vote in the full House might not set any wheels in motion, but it would increase the pressure to make a decision on impeachment one way or the other. Pelosi is quite right to duck that pressure on behalf of her caucus. It's true that there appears to be plenty to investigate, so it's both in the party's interest to keep the inquiry going and the responsible thing to do. But actual articles of impeachment might not have the votes on the House floor, and a failed effort would surely be a victory for President Donald Trump. Even if Pelosi could whip enough votes to send impeachment to the Senate, it would be an extremely weak statement unless Democrats were unified. Matt Glassman is quite right: "There's a simple political principle here: things that unite your party or faction and divide the opposition are good for you, and things that divide your party or faction while uniting your opposition are bad for you." A bare majority in the House for impeachment would almost certainly produce a majority against removal in the Senate, with 53 Republicans united and the 47 Democrats quite possibly split. (That's if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would even hold a trial.) Not only that, but the toughest votes in this scenario would mostly be for Democrats. Pelosi isn't going to do that. By contrast, keeping the investigation going is good politics, and fighting the administration's stonewalling in court is the responsible thing to do. Meanwhile, maintaining the fiction that there's some big tension over whether to move to an impeachment inquiry reduces the pressure to make a premature decision and gives House Democrats an opportunity to "vote" by declaring themselves for or against the inquiry itself.  In other words, the whole thing is a very useful fiction, harming no one. But there's no reason for the rest of us to go along with it.  1. Erica Chenoweth, Tommy Leung, Nathan Perkins and Jeremy Pressman at the Monkey Cage on the "Lights for Liberty" protests.  2. Dave Hopkins on the Tuesday night debate – I agree with most of his analysis, so read it! 3. Matthew Dickinson on the Tuesday night debate – I disagree with most of his analysis (he's far more generous to the CNN moderators than I was), so read it!  4. Matt Grossmann talks to Sean Freeder about the economy and the 2020 election. 5. Stacie Taranto with an interesting comparison of Joe Biden and Richard Nixon in 1968. Big caveat: The nomination process was very different then.  6. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Ramesh Ponnuru on Trump and conservatives. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.

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