Today's Agenda The Fed Does the Bare Minimum Months of volcanic tantrums from financial markets and President Donald Trump finally got results today – in one of the most reluctant Federal Reserve rate cuts in history. As markets expected, the Fed lowered its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the first such cut in a decade. But it was not happy about it! Two members of the Fed policy committee dissented, in a relatively unusual display of rebellion. And embattled Fed Chairman Jay Powell suggested in a press conference this was just a one-time tap on the accelerator, not the start of a long rate-cutting campaign. The economy's not actually doing too badly, he said. Stock traders, who had hoped for a much more pleasant surprise than this, did some rebelling of their own. Bond traders sold off short-term debt, flattening the "yield curve" – the gap between short- and long-term interest rates – in what is typically not a great sign for the economy. The trouble for Powell is that he has not yet shown much spine when it comes to ignoring market pleas, writes Brian Chappatta. Markets still demand more rate cuts, Brian notes, and Trump's Twitter complaints to that effect should begin any second now. Like spoiled toddlers, they have every reason to believe they'll get their way if they just keep yelling. Boris and the Incredible Shrinking Pound Sterling A relatively hawkish Fed boosted the dollar against major currencies, including what was once the major-est currency of all, the British pound. New Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying to drag the U.K. out of the European Union as a way to restore British greatness, but his efforts are trashing its currency. Markets aren't thrilled with Johnson's threat to leave the EU without a deal. He risks crashing the pound so hard it ends his premiership, writes John Authers. It's happened to better PMs, after all. This all leaves Jay Powell's U.K. counterpart, Bank of England chief Mark Carney, in a pickle, notes Marcus Ashworth. A no-deal Brexit would be an economic disaster calling for lower interest rates, but then rate cuts would further hammer the pound. "So what?" You might be saying, if you are Boris Johnson or another die-hard Brexiteer. Doesn't a weak currency help exports? Yes, but it also raises import prices, notes Lionel Laurent; and the pound is falling partly because businesses expect the economy to crater in a no-deal Brexit. That will not make Britain great again. How Not to Win Friends and Influence Iran Yesterday the Trump administration asked Germany, France and Britain to team up with the U.S. to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has lately been making trouble for this chokepoint for Middle Eastern oil. But aside from the U.K., which is desperate for any friend these days, nobody has exactly jumped on the team and come on in for the big win. This suggests Trump's boorish treatment of allies, along with a history of unhappy U.S. adventures in the Middle East, have weakened American credibility and its major alliances, writes Leonid Bershidsky. Trump's Iran strategy involves applying "maximum pressure" to the regime through harsh sanctions, feisty tweets and the trashing of the 2015 nuclear accord. This approach is actually helping Iran's establishment cling to power, writes Eli Lake. A softer touch, one that prioritizes helping Iran's people, is needed. The administration has launched a propaganda campaign aimed at blaming Iran's leadership for the country's problems. This is pointless, as Iranians already blame their leaders for the plight, writes Bobby Ghosh. They'd rather know what Americans will actually do for them. Democratic Yell Festival Part Two What's more fun than one excrutiatingly long, crowded, not very enlightening political debate? Two excrutiatingly long, crowded, not very enlightening political debates, that's what! Yep, tonight we get Round Two of Round Two of the Democratic presidential debates. This one will feature front-runner Joe Biden, rising challenger Kamala Harris, long-shot threats Cory Booker and Julian Castro and six other people who have no chance but get to hang around onstage anyway. As was the case last night, these also-rans really need to catch fire in a big way tonight or miss out on September's debates and vaporize their already thin chances. Unfortunately, this debate will again be moderated by CNN, which did a poor job with last night's, writes Jonathan Bernstein. The moderators injected themselves far too much into the conversation, to no good effect. If the debates keep being as bad as they've been so far this cycle, expect the parties to wrest control of them back from the networks next time. Further 2020 Reading: Republicans should worry about a string of House retirements. – Jonathan Bernstein Telltale Charts The trade war has China buying more soybeans from Brazil than from the U.S., a shift that could become permanent, warns David Fickling. Further Reading Automakers did right by themselves and the planet in choosing California's emissions standards over Trump's. – Bloomberg's editorial board Conservatives will pay a heavy price for excusing Trump's racism. – Ramesh Ponnuru General Electric Co. just took another stumbling step on the road to recovery, but still has far to go. – Brooke Sutherland If Apple Inc. wants to be a services business, it must shed old habits, starting with exorbitantly pricing phones. – Shira Ovide Beijing and Hong Kong must seriously address protests, before permanent damage is done to Hong Kong's status. – Matthew Brooker Thirty-three years after Chernobyl, Russia still can't admit to nuclear accidents. – Leonid Bershidsky Neanderthals deserve to join modern humans in the family tree. – Faye Flam ICYMI Leon Black just couldn't quit doing business with registered sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. New professional lacrosse league kicks off with controversy. Ronald Reagan had a racist phone chat with Richard Nixon. Kickers It's snowing grasshoppers in Las Vegas. (h/t Mike Smedley) What happens when the world's population stops growing? Filling hospitals with art reduces patient pain. The 40 best singles and albums of 1999. Note: Please send art and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
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