Dow’s worst day of the year | China punches back | Morgan Stanley’s recession warning
EDITOR'S NOTE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average came close to breaking a record Monday — and not the type investors are typically excited about.
The 30-stock index plunged 767 points for its sixth-largest point decline ever as the trade war between the United States and China boiled over. The sell-off piles onto last week's losses spurred by President Donald Trump surprise 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports. China struck back by stopping purchases of U.S. agricultural products and according to state media and other reports, threatened to slap tariffs on farm goods purchased after Aug. 3.
Wall Street analysts braced investors for more trade trouble between the U.S. and China. Cowen analyst Chris Krueger warned clients that on a scale of 1-10, China's retaliation was an 11. A Morgan Stanley team of analysts said, "investors should behave as if further escalation will happen in 2019." If that escalation does happen, the firm estimated that a global economic recession will come in the next nine months. J.P. Morgan warned of a few more weeks of pain for stocks, but recommended that investors buy the dip.
Still, there are a few sectors that tend to thrive in the turmoil.
CNBC used Kensho, a hedge fund analytics tool, to find the best-performing exchange-traded funds when the S&P 500 tumbled at least 10% in one month in the 11-year bull run (leveraged ETFs are excluded from the analysis). Bond and gold funds stand out as top performers as a major sell-off in equities would spark a flight-to-safety move. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF managed to gain more than 7% on average during the past pullbacks, while the SPDR Gold Trust climbed more than 5% on average. The iShares Silver Trust, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF also showed strong resilience in market downturns in the past.
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