Header Ads

5 things to start your day

Five Things
Bloomberg

Traders are waiting for Powell, manufacturing in Europe gives ammo for bulls and bears, and Boris Johnson is on a Brexit tour of Europe. 

Powell up

Investors around the globe are waiting with bated breath for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's opening address at Jackson Hole Friday, with the market continuing to price in an ultra-dovish trajectory for rates. Trading activity in the U.S. has been light this week ahead of the speech. According to minutes released Wednesday, FOMC members saw the July easing as an insurance policy against headwinds from the trade war and too-low inflation -- reasons that look more compelling in light of dispiriting manufacturing data. Also be on the lookout for minutes from the European Central Bank's latest meeting as policymakers lay the groundwork for fresh stimulus that could be announced next month.

PMI Mixed

Speaking of Europe, a key gauge of the manufacturing sector in Germany showed orders at factories and services companies are dropping at the fastest pace in six years, and more companies now expect output to fall than rise over the next 12 months. Not so in France, where the same gauge showed the private sector unexpectedly gained speed in August. Solid performance in services was complemented by a return to growth in manufacturing. U.S. manufacturing PMI is due at 9:45 a.m.

Brexit hors d'oeuvre

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is having lunch with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron a day after an official said the country expects Britain to leave the European Union without a deal. Johnson is tacking Brexit talks onto his trip at this weekend's G-7 meeting. German Chancellor Angela Merkel made it clear it's up to the U.K. to put forward workable alternatives within 30 days. Johnson said he's happy with the "blistering timetable" and said the U.K. still seeks a deal -- while his government preps a publicity blitz to get the public ready in the event of a no-deal Brexit. 

Markets

Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined, with Hong Kong shares posting an 0.8% drop and stocks in China showing modest gains. The Topix index closed little changed. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index fell after closing higher Wednesday. S&P 500 futures dropped around 0.25% at 6:02 a.m. Eastern Time. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was 1.577%, and gold was lower.

Coming up…

We've got more retailers reporting today after strong results from Target Inc. showed industry resilience in the face of whatever fallout may be coming from the U.S.-China trade war. BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. is up first, followed by Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. The Gap Inc. and Ross Stores Inc. are up after the market close along with software companies salesforce.com Inc. and Intuit Inc. Look out for initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45 a.m., after the latter showed the largest back-to-back weekly slide since March 2011. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Lorcan's interested in this morning

On one side of the Atlantic we have the great and the good of global monetary policy meeting at Jackson Hole. On the other we have holders of the fiscal levers gathering at the G-7 in France. My prediction for the outcome of both is that they will each look to the other to solve the world's problems. Yes, Powell's speech may hint at further rate cuts, but will likely emphasise that the risks to economic growth come from government policy -- the trade war -- rather than market forces. On the fiscal side, politicians seem determined to either blame central bankers for not doing enough or they say it is not time for a fiscal response yet. Fundamentally, they are probably both right. There is, despite what the yield curve might be saying, no downturn here yet. Politicians need the cover of rising unemployment before they can loosen the purse strings. But that does not mean they should do nothing. The lesson that all policy makers should have learned from the financial crisis is that an ounce of prevention, done right, is worth $700 billion of cure.

Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

FOLLOW US Facebook Share Twitter Share SEND TO A FRIEND Share with a friend

No comments