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Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open.

Good morning. Boris Johnson's parliamentary suspension could face legal challenges, Italy's Giuseppe Conte will be tasked with forming a new government and the U.S. government won't intervene on the dollar. Here's what's moving markets.

Trade War Quiet

Investors hoping for firm updates on the trade war this week will be disappointed, according to White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. It's "unlikely anything quick will happen," he said in an interview with Fox Business Network last night. President Donald Trump tweeted that the U.S. is "doing very well" on the saga, but there's not been much else for markets to go by. Here's a handy trade war timeline for your perusal.

Johnson Faces Resistance

A summer of relatively few jaw-dropping Brexit developments came to an end yesterday as U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced he will be suspending the House of Commons -- known as proroguing -- for five weeks from Sept. 12, narrowing the window for lawmakers opposed to a no-deal Brexit to derail his plans and setting up a parliamentary showdown. The announcement was met with outrage by those looking to obstruct Johnson's plans and a number of urgent legal challenges have already been filed to prevent the suspension. Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow called the move a "constitutional outrage" and the pound fell as much as 1.1% on Wednesday, the most in a month. The move also increases the likelihood of a general election.

Mr. Nobody's Triumph

Italy's "Mr. Nobody" Giuseppe Conte will be given the go-ahead to form a new government, a senior government official said Wednesday evening, ending days of bickering between the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party. The news caps a remarkable week for Conte, who was ousted as premier in the outgoing populist administration when League party leader Matteo Salvini set off an unprecedented mid-summer government crisis earlier this month. The euro was steady overnight. 

Asia Retreats

Asian stocks retreated Thursday while the dollar held near a nine-month high and U.S. yields declined. Attention was on comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who said the Trump administration does not intend to intervene in the currency market right now, while adding that issuing ultra-long U.S. bonds is "under very serious consideration." Oil held gains after a drop in U.S. inventories eased demand concerns. 

Coming Up...

A second reading of 2Q U.S. economic growth will take center-stage later, and is expected to be revised down slightly. Before that, Germany's annual inflation rate is seen to have been stable in August compared with July, and we'll also get a reading of euro-area economic confidence. In corporate news, U.K. recruiter Hays Plc and French construction firm Bouygues SA give earnings updates, while British brick-maker Brickability Holdings Ltd provides some IPO excitement on London's AIM. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

With the damage from last week's Donald Trump Tweetstorm still being assessed, here's the long-range Trump Twitter weather forecast. There are a number of worrying pressure situations forming on the horizon. Tweetstorm Xi could hit Sept. 1, should China respond to the next tranche of tariff increases. We've already seen how Trump reacted on Twitter to retaliatory tariffs from Beijing -- increasing tax rates and ordering U.S. companies out of the country -- stocks sold off and bonds jumped. Then, Tweetstorm Mario may arrive Sept. 12 if ECB policy upsets Trump -- remember Mario Draghi signaled last month that all options are on the table, including QE. Tweetstorm Jerome is expected to make landfall Sept. 19 when the Fed announces its rate decision. Markets are hoping for a 50 basis point cut, leaving room for disappointment if it's just 25 -- Trump is already disappointed. Finally, Tweetstorm Jinping could come around Oct. 1., the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China and the date of further tariff increases. China is unlikely to make trade concessions in this period, so the potential for Trump reaction is high. September is North Atlantic hurricane season -- it's likely to be for Tweetstorms as well. It's time to heed the wisdom of experienced sailors and seek out safe harbors for the next month or so.

Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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