Your Fed day play-by-play

WED, JUL 31, 2019

YOUR AFTERNOON NEWS UPDATE AND MARKET ACTION FROM CNBC

AS OF WED, JUL 31, 2019 • 12:11 ET

DJIA		27211.73
		+0.05%	+13.71

S&P 500		3016.13
		+0.10%	+2.95

NASDAQ		8292.35
		+0.23%	+18.74

EDITOR'S NOTE

Okay everyone, here's how this works...(all Eastern Time):

1:00 p.m.: We'll hear from Paul McCulley, Julia Coronado, David Wessel, and others in the countdown to the Fed's decision. Wait'll you hear the latest stat on the amount of negative-yielding global debt!! Germany's 10-year also just hit a fresh record low at -0.424%. [This is self-serving show tease. The real action starts next.]

2:00 p.m.: The Fed's decision and statement on interest rates is released. Here's where we find out, quite simply, if they will cut rates for the first time in over a decade, and the rationale for doing so. We'll also find out from the roughly one-page statement who, if anyone, dissented from the decision, and why. Steve Liesman will run through all of this at two on the dot on Power Lunch. (There are no "dot plots" this time around--those rate projections are released just four times a year.)

2:01-2:30 p.m.: Watch the markets. If the 10-year Treasury yield jumps, it's because the move is seen as too hawkish/tight-fisted even if it's a rate cut. How so? Typically the language in the statement. The Fed might not hint at further cuts, might not describe the economy as that weak, might say low inflation is transitory, might keep shrinking the balance sheet, etc. If the 10-year drops, then vice versa.

2:30-3:30ish p.m.: Fed Chair Jay Powell holds his news conference (we carry the whole thing, obviously). He has one every meeting now, which is relatively new, and quite useful to the Fed since they don't like to make major policy shifts without being able to fully explain them. Now, they have that flexibility at every meeting. Just a few years ago, they didn't have press conferences at all (ah, the days...). The market reaction could completely reverse here, based on the way Powell describes the rate move and answers reporters' questions.

Some other fun/telling areas to watch in markets as all this plays out: the dollar; gold; bank stocks (like the KBE); big dividend payers; and the FANG names, to name a few.

I've got my soda and M&Ms (and tissue box) ready to go.

See you at 1 p.m.!

Kelly

Kelly Evans

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