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Hong Kong chaos

Five Things - Asia
Bloomberg

Hong Kong's protesters storm the city's legislative chamber. Asia equity futures are in the red after U.S. stocks give back record gains. And Asia's banks must brace for a worsening storm, McKinsey says. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Chaos in Hong Kong

A group of Hong Kong protesters occupied and ransacked the city's legislative chamber on Monday in an escalation of demonstrations against the China-appointed government. The city's leader, Carrie Lam, condemned the "use of extreme violence," then promised without specifics to govern in a more inclusive way. Riot police fired tear gas after demonstrators smashed their way into and then vandalized the city's Legislative Council.  A peaceful march earlier drew hundreds of thousands of people. Read more about the extradition bill controversy in our QuickTake.

RBA Cut Likely

The RBA will probably cut rates for a second straight meeting, taking its benchmark down 25 basis points to 1%, according to consensus. Australia's jobless rate remains mired above 5%, first-quarter growth was the slowest since 2009 and housing prices keep sliding, Bloomberg Economics said. Governor Philip Lowe said last month that it's "not unreasonable" to expect further easing.

In the Red

Asian stocks are set for a mixed open after optimism over the U.S.-China trade truce was offset by concerns over slowing economic growth. Futures slipped in Japan and rose in Australia after U.S. stocks pared gains from record highs. Presidents Trump and Xi's G-20 trade truce lifted U.S. stocks but weak American manufacturing data cut the gains. Treasuries fell, with 10-year yields up two basis points. The dollar rose against every G-10 counterpart, with the Swiss franc and Aussie leading declines. Gold dropped almost 2% amid general risk-on sentiment. 

Oil's Bounce, OPEC's Deal

Oil closed higher in a roller-coaster trading session, as an OPEC deal to extend output curbs outweighed troubling economic data. Ministers meeting in Vienna agreed to prolong supply cuts by another nine months, delegates familiar said. The decision still needs to be ratified by non-OPEC allies on Tuesday, but Russia has already approved. The cartel also reached a compromise on a charter for long-term cooperation with non-members.

Asia's Banks Losing Share

The days of a "free lunch" are over for Asia's banks, which face an intensifying threat from slowing economic growth and competition with technology firms, according to McKinsey & Co. After years of rapid expansion, banks in the region are now seeing their revenue and profit growth slow and global market share shrink. "Many banks will struggle as the storm worsens," McKinsey wrote. "The road ahead is difficult, and less efficient banks will disappear."

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Cormac's interested in this morning

Recent data from China's manufacturing sector show the economy remains fragile, underlining the importance for global investors that the truce forged last weekend with the U.S. be a lasting one. China's June manufacturing purchasing managers index came in below expectations on Sunday, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI missed forecasts Monday. The weak data indicate that the recovery in the first half waned further, while a manufacturing sub-index gauging new export orders edged down, highlighting the impact of previous tariffs.

While the positive noises out of the G-20 summit in Osaka should underpin risk appetite in the short-term, the data indicate investors looking for further progress may not be patient for long. Trade uncertainties could soon return to cloud sentiment. Traders will now turn their focus to the U.S. jobs report Friday — and will be hoping the American economy is holding up a lot better.

Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

 

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