Today's Agenda  If Iran Did It Yesterday we wrote about how Iran would have to be out of its mind to attack oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz right now. But what if it is, to some degree, out of its mind? Bobby Ghosh argues this side today, as conflicting accounts of the attacks fly. Attacking oil tankers – especially a Japanese one, on the very day Shinzo Abe visited Tehran on a peace mission – may indeed be irrational, Bobby writes, but then Iran isn't always a rational actor. With that in mind, you can imagine some potential motivations. For one thing, Iran may see Abe as merely an emissary for President Donald Trump; striking a Japanese tanker could be a message to him. For another, Iran may see this as the best way to fight back against sanctions and gain leverage in talks, Bobby writes. If all of this is true, then Iran may not have a rational sense of its odds of success. James Stavridis agrees Iran is the likely culprit, but thinks the U.S. should work hard to avoid military confrontation, by bringing more allies to its own side and ratcheting up pressure by other means. But he also agrees that Iran isn't driven by pure reason, which would make more attacks – and still more tension – possible. The New Irrational Exuberance Speaking of irrationality: Financial markets have rallied hard lately in the apparent belief the Federal Reserve will deftly execute a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with precisely three interest-rate cuts this year and no more, writes John Authers. Such a feat has rarely been accomplished, he notes; the Fed managed it in 1995, but at the cost of inflating the dot-com bubble. And the world was very, very different then. There's really no economic data to justify the Fed cutting rates right now anyway, writes Narayana Kocherlakota. A better approach would be to announce it will slash rates almost to zero again if the data sour significantly. Such words could be as effective as any rate cut. AI and Insurance. What Could Go Wrong? Chinese insurance giant Ping An is reportedly using artificial intelligence to weed out potential fraudsters and other threats to its bottom line. But the system's fraud-detection abilities are dubious, and it will almost certainly be biased against the poor and the already unhealthy, writes Cathy O'Neil. We should hope such a thing never comes to the U.S. But, Cathy notes, if Republicans manage to get rid of the Affordable Care Act's patient protections, then it just might. UBS's China Headache UBS Group AG finds itself in a nightmare with Chinese officials because one of its economists dared to use the term "Chinese pig" to describe … pigs … in China. A series of groveling apologies hasn't helped yet; there are calls for the economist to be fired. Elisa Martinuzzi writes this is a lesson for banks and others scrambling to do business in China, about how easy it is to run afoul of the powers that be. It's also a cautionary tale for analysts trying to inject even the slightest bit of creativity into their work, Elisa writes. The risk is high you will offend someone. Telltale Charts Most humans living today have only ever known climate change, points out Nathaniel Bullard.  It's obvious America has a housing problem, especially in cities where good jobs cluster. NIMBYism is often to blame for driving rents higher than incomes, writes Noah Smith, who suggests the federal government will have to step in to help.  Further Reading President Donald Trump admires European regulators for squeezing cash from big American tech companies, but he misses the point of where European regulation is headed. – Lionel Laurent Narendra Modi's faulty GDP numbers have damaged India's economy. – Andy Mukherjee It's probably a good thing that China doesn't make public just how bad its banks' assets really are. – Dinny McMahon We may be living in historic times, but we're not good at knowing in the moment. – Cass Sunstein Howard Schultz has put his third-party campaign on ice; don't expect it to be thawed. – Jonathan Bernstein Rejuvenating yourself with young blood might just work, but not yet; which isn't stopping entrepreneurs from trying to cash in on the idea. – Faye Flam ICYMI The lineups for the first Democratic debates are set. Ivanka Trump made $4 million from her father's D.C. hotel last year. A failed Trump golf course is now a failed New York state park. Kickers Don't put your drowned phone in rice to dry it. Stop & Shop now has big, dumb robots patrolling its aisles. What "Slaughterhouse Five" tells us at 50. Photos of the week. Note: Please send robots and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. | 
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