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‘Interest rates’ may be a thing of the past

Bloomberg Opinion Today
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Today's Agenda

The Forever Interest Rate War

In the year 2117 Austria will very nearly be beachfront property, and one of its 100-year government bonds will mature. During that time, investors (and/or their descendants and/or their brains downloaded into robots) who bought a reissue of the bond this week will enjoy a whopping yield of … 1.17% per year.

Though that is less than euro-area inflation, this bond issue was in hot demand, writes Marcus Ashworth. This is the latest example of what we described earlier this week as a desperate scramble for yield in a world where central banks are pushing interest rates toward zero … and below.

In fact, nearly 40% of the world's government bonds yield less than zero, notes David Fickling – meaning you pay for the privilege of lending these governments money. Due to bond-market sorcery this makes sense for some investors, though David notes they may get a similar total return from gold, which helps explain the shiny stuff's recent popularity. So maybe it's not a sign of impending apocalypse.

And that's good because plunging rates (and soaring gold prices) can seem apocalyptic. But Japan has been wallowing in the shallow end of the rate pool for a long time now without the world ending. This could be a preview of what's to come for the U.S., Noah Smith suggests. That's because both countries have massive budget deficits and the prospect of bigger ones ahead. Keeping the government solvent is one reason rates have stayed near zero in Japan for so long, Noah writes. Our robot selves may still be hunting for yield in 2117.

The Border Is a Five-Alarm Crisis

The image of Oscar Alberto Martinez and his 23-month-old daughter, Angie Valeria Martinez, who drowned together in the Rio Grande, has joined the image of Alan Kurdi, the three-year-old Syrian boy who drowned in the Mediterranean, as an iconic image of a refugee crisis, writes Leonid Bershidsky. The situations that led to both deaths are similar, Leonid writes, with one big difference: Europe did its best to process asylum-seekers, while Trump simply pushes them away. That's the kind of approach that indirectly killed the Martinezes. 

Their deaths come after more alarming revelations about the suffering of children in detention facilities along the border. Karl Smith suggests both parties are playing politics with this crisis and that they need to pass a bill quickly that pleases everyone, including President Donald Trump, to quickly deliver some relief. 

Problematic Products

It's rare these days to find a safety problem with an airplane in regular commercial service; finding two is rarer still. But the FAA has found a second problem with Boeing Co.'s 737 Max. This raises questions about Boeing's safety procedures, writes David Fickling. The company should thank goodness it operates in a duopoly with Airbus, or it would actually be in real trouble. 

Bayer AG, meanwhile, has a problem with the Roundup weedkiller it inherited when it bought Monstanto. It keeps losing lawsuits claiming the stuff causes cancer, and activist Elliott Management Co. wants it to just settle already. That might cost $10 billion, but Elliott thinks it could also unlock $34 billion in market value, Chris Hughes writes. It's definitely a better idea than endless court battles. 

California Crises

California has a water problem. Namely, it's running out of it, and too much of what it does have is polluted. The state needs money to knit together a crazy-quilt of different systems and regulations, writes Bloomberg's editorial board; but it keeps making bad choices, including raiding funds meant to deal with climate change. 

Meanwhile, the state's biggest utility, PG&E Corp., is trying to climb out of a bankruptcy triggered by the state's devastating wildfires. It has a plan for leaving Chapter 11, but Liam Denning notes it would put much of the burden of future costs on California's ratepayers. Some activist investors (including the aforementioned Elliott) have a better plan. 

Further Activist Investor Reading: Carl Icahn has a point about Occidental Petroleum Corp.'s expensive Anadarko deal. – Liam Denning

Let's Get Ready to Re-Rumble

Well, we survived it: the first Democratic debate, which was about as chaotic as expected. It was also revealing, however, of the party's policy-heavy approach to pretty much everything, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Fittingly, its star was Elizabeth "I Have a Plan for That" Warren, along with standout performances from Cory Booker and Julian Castro. Karl Smith was not thrilled with the policies on offer, however. He suggests Joe Biden must stop the party's leftward drift in the second debate tonight, which will feature an avowed socialist, Senator Bernie Sanders.

Further Opposition Party Reading: Democrats have secured Robert Mueller testimony, but there's a high risk they'll blow their chance to make it meaningful. – Jonathan Bernstein 

Telltale Charts

Apple Inc. may be reticent to discuss its driverless-car project because it's not going so great; but it still must be more open about it, writes Shira Ovide.

As Jair Bolsonaro's plane could tell you, cocaine use is rising again in the U.S. and Europe, and technology is partly to blame, writes Leonid Bershidsky.

Further Reading

Chief Justice John Roberts's decision to temporarily forbid a citizenship question on the 2020 census does just enough to avoid making the Supreme Court look fully partisan. – Noah Feldman 

The Supreme Court's approval of partisan gerrymandering is the right call. – Stephen Carter 

There's a way Recep Tayyip Erdogan can get back into NATO's good graces, if only Trump would offer it and Erdogan would take it. – Bobby Ghosh 

As G-20 leaders gather in Osaka, Carole Ghosn reminds them of Japan's terrible justice system. – Joe Nocera 

Trump is wrong to seek a weaker dollar. – Bill Dudley 

Ford Motor Co.'s European layoffs are grim but inevitable. – Chris Bryant 

The world's unbanked are doing fine without Facebook Inc.'s Libra. – Adam Minter 

ICYMI

Trump considers a capital-gains tax cut for the wealthy.

Twitter's new rules could affect Trump.

The charmed life of a $4.6 billion Tiger Cub.

Kickers

The simple genius of checklists.

The Pentagon can now ID you by your heartbeat from 200 meters away.

How TikTok became the future of music.

How to remember everything.

Note: Please send checklists and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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