| Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. World leaders gathering in Osaka, Japan, for the G-20 meeting will have no shortage of existential global topics to discuss, ranging from trade wars to climate and Mideast tensions. Yet for those coming from the European Union, the agenda – at least on the sidelines – may be dominated by a more parochial subject: who will lead the bloc for the next five years. With time fast running out to agree on the next European Commission president, look out for signs of side deals, compromises and trade-offs. If not, Sunday's extraordinary EU summit may well end up in yet another stalemate.
—Viktoria Dendrinou What's Happening
Swiss Bustup | Switzerland moved to block trading of Swiss shares in the EU, an unprecedented step, shortly after the European Commission announced that it saw no reason to extend recognition of the country's stock exchange beyond the end of this month. The trading tiff is a consequence of Switzerland declining to sign off on a new umbrella treaty governing Swiss-EU relations that was designed to replace a smorgasbord of individual arrangements.
Italian Spat | Another important side discussion in Osaka: the European Commission and Italy will seek to strike a compromise to stop Brussels from triggering a disciplinary procedure against Rome next week. But even if they reach a deal that would resolve the budget tussle, the Italian premier would still have to convince his populists deputies back home to take it. Euro Prices | June inflation estimates for the the 19-nation euro area are due today and economists anticipate a reading of 1.2%. The expectation is well below the European Central Bank's goal and policy makers have signaled that they're preparing to add more stimulus because of the weak outlook, largely driven by global trade tensions. In Case You Missed It
Barnier's Chances | Acceptance is growing for EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to be appointed the bloc's most senior official, even as his natural allies remain unconvinced. The Frenchman is emerging as a compromise candidate to become president of the European Commission despite not publicly saying that he wants it. His biggest difficulty is that his political brethren accuse him of quietly working to undermine their formal candidate. Hungarian Victory | Hungary won a court fight with the EU over an advertising tax, a setback for antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager's crusade against nations she says are gaming state aid-rules to give select companies an unfair advantage over rivals. Vestager's targets include several American companies such as Google, prompting Donald Trump to say that "she hates the United States." May's Threat | Theresa May gave her strongest signal yet that she could oppose her successor if he tries to force the U.K. out of the EU without a deal, declining to promise she will loyally follow the orders of the next Conservative leader. While May will no longer be in charge of Brexit policy, her vote could be crucial given that the Conservative Party has no overall majority in the House of Commons. Climate Deadlock | Envoys at a round of United Nations climate talks are finishing two weeks of discussions with little progress on how to cut pollution as a heatwave scorches Europe's capital cities. Delegates remained deadlocked on accounting rules and governance, and are likely to water down a statement on a scientific report about the risks of rising temperatures. Quiz Answer | The former European Commission lawyer whose best-selling novel was made into a Netflix series is Malin Persson Giolito. The series: Quicksand. She has now retired from the commission to focus on her writing. Chart of the Day  Euro-area economic confidence declined more than forecast in June, dropping to its lowest level since 2016 as deepening trade tensions and a more cautious outlook for the global economy weigh on business and consumer sentiment. The European Commission's gauge of sentiment fell to 103.3 points, from 105.2 points in May and below the median forecast of 104.8. Today's Agenda All times CET. -
11 a.m. Eurostat to release inflation estimate for euro area -
6 p.m. ESM Managing Director, Klaus Regling, speaks at Oesterreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften (OAW) in Vienna -
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