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Five Things
Bloomberg

Trump is picking more fights, oil's roller coaster week, and a lull in Hong Kong. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Combative Trump

Fresh from a bust-up with Mexico and still mired in disputes with the likes of China and Iran, Donald Trump upped his criticism of Germany on Wednesday. He threatened sanctions over Angela Merkel's continued support for a gas pipeline from Russia and warned that he could shift troops away from America's NATO ally over its defense spending. As for the trade war with China, Trump said he has no deadline for the Asian nation to return to trade talks, other than the one in his head. Literally. He pointed to his head. With falling oil demand signaling easing global growth, and the U.S. budget deficit ballooning, Five Things is sure everything is gonna work out just fine and dandy.

Crude thoughts

It's turning into quite the week in the oil market. West Texas crude tumbled 4% on Wednesday after EIA data showed total stocks at the highest since mid-2017, a sign that production is outstripping demand and yet more fuel (pun intended) for those who fear the U.S.-China trade war is tripping up the global economy. On Thursday morning, there was a new narrative -- WTI was up almost 3 percent after two tankers were damaged in a suspected attack in the Gulf of Oman. The incident follows attacks on oil tankers near the Persian Gulf last month and once again raises the possibility of a disruption in crude flows. This will also probably work out OK, since when was there ever trouble in the Middle East?

Hong Kong calm

Hong Kong lawmakers once again postponed debate on legislation that would allow extraditions to China, as tensions remained high between police and protesters after violent clashes on Wednesday. Both the Hang Seng Index and the Hong Kong dollar were barely changed today. While all is relatively calm for now, side effects to all this are still filtering through, and the government postponed a high-profile land auction because of the disruption. Amid the lull there was one piece of good news for the city and its markets: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has filed confidentially to list there, moving closer to what will potentially be Hong Kong's biggest share sale since 2010. See? Everything is fine.

Markets

It's getting more risk-on by the hour. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 0.5% while Japan's Topix finished 0.8% lower but the Stoxx Europe 600 index reversed earlier losses and is 0.2% higher as of 6:08 a.m. Eastern time. S&P futures are up 0.4%, the yield on 10-year Treasuries was at 2.112%, and gold was up 0.26%. 

Coming up...

You want data? We got you. U.S. import numbers land at 8:30 a.m., and because you've been extra good, you get export figures as well. Not enough? OK then, how about initial jobless data at the same time, followed by Bloomberg's June economic survey and our consumer comfort number at 9:45 a.m. And by 1:00 p.m. we'll have the results of a sale of 30-year Treasuries for you. Boom, done.

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

Beyond Meat is one of the most interesting company and stock stories of 2019. The stock is up over 400% from its debut, having added about 40% since reporting its first quarterly earnings last week. It occurred to me the other day that the IPO reminded me a lot of the Krispy Kreme IPO back in 2000. The donut chain went public in April of that year, and nearly quadrupled by early July. What was notable about the Krispy Kreme IPO was how it was just after the peak of the dotcom euphoria, and also how it represented something very real and tangible (selling donuts) after a period when all of the excitement was for businesses that were anything but real and tangible (all the dotcoms). Today we're seeing it again. While the meat might be fake, the business model of selling veggie patties is very real and easy to understand: Ideally, you sell the patties for more than they cost to make, and the more you sell the better. Compare Beyond Meat's business model to Uber, where the true cost and price of the product is difficult to understand and predict, and the path to profitability is vague. I'm not predicting that history will repeat or even rhyme, but just noting that at times when people are overwhelmed with complicated stories, sometimes they gravitate to the simple ones.

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