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Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open. Good morning. U.S-China talks are moving back to the forefront of investor minds, oil prices remain volatile and no-deal Brexit scenarios are the order of the day in the race to be U.K. prime minister. Here's what's moving markets.  Tariff Talks The U.S. is willing to suspend implementing tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods ahead of talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit aimed at reaching a deal between the two nations. Those tariffs are reshaping global trade and weighing heavily on the economic outlook, so much so that the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell is now eyeing a long-run rate path lower than it had originally envisaged. And be prepared for more from Trump about the dollar, which is at a three-month low but still too strong for the president. Oil and Iran Oil prices jumped after a report suggesting crude stockpiles in the U.S. have continued to shrink, a bullish signal for the market given the concerns it faces around economic jitters and tensions in the Middle East. Those tensions, between the U.S. and Iran, are showing few signs of abating too, with Iran saying the drone it downed that sparked the recent breakdown in relations was found 4 miles inside its own territory. Stocks in Asia were mostly lower on Wednesday, following a drop in the U.S. market. No Deal Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testifies before U.K. parliament on May's inflation report in which the central bank said it stands ready to raise rates by more than investors are predicting if a smooth exit from the EU is achieved. That seems like a long time ago, however, and Carney has since acknowledged rising concerns over a no-deal scenario. No-deal has also moved to the center of the debate between the two candidates for prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, with the front-runner Johnson proposing two exit strategies that the EU has already rejected. Two Signals You didn't need confirmation that markets are pricing in lower global interest rates, but here's a couple of clear-cut indicators just for good measure. First, check out this 100-year bond that yields just over 1%, highlighting just how desperate investors are for returns. Second, gold, a long-established inflation hedge, just keeps on rising. In fact, it's on course for its best month since June 2016, when the Brexit vote led to a spike in haven assets. Geopolitical risk is also aiding this rally, of course.  Coming Up... Semiconductor stocks are likely to be in focus after earnings from Micron Technology Inc. beat expectations and the chip-making giant said it has resumed some shipments to Huawei Technologies Co., appearing to find a way round an export ban on the Chinese telecom-equipment maker. Consumer confidence data from Germany and France are due, along with a Czech rate decision that follows the weekend's mass protests in Prague. In the U.S. tonight, contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination begin two nights of debates in Miami. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. A $63 billion Botox job. The most expensive cities for expats in the world. Traders seeking $100 million in bonuses win U.K. ruling. 'The Dead Cow' finally produces oil, a century after discovery. Cannabis companies find a good fit: mixed martial arts. The real exploits of real husbands of real housewives. Double stocks blow for this billionaire. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen's interested in this morning With current headlines dominated by central bank pronouncements and expectations for this weekend's key G-20 trade meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, investors could be forgiven for overlooking the upcoming second-quarter earnings season. They should prepare for bad news. The pace of profit downgrades is exceeding upgrades by the most since January, according to Citigroup Inc.'s global earnings revisions index. Amid the uncertainty over the Sino-American trade war, analysts have been busy slashing estimates. A series of disappointing earnings outlooks from FedEx Corp. to Daimler AG will have done little to improve optimism. Analysts are still pricing in 4-5% profit growth for U.S. and European companies this year, and 9-11% growth for next. The next few weeks will show if that is optimistic, particularly if a U.S.-China trade deal is kicked into the long grass this weekend. Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more. FOLLOW US SEND TO A FRIEND You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Europe newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022