Bond market screaming for a rate cut, weak European data, and China travel warning. Powell upBond investors are positioned for at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says a cut may be needed soon to counter trade-war risks. Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the bank is prepared to ease if needed. It's no wonder then that today's opening remarks by Chair Jerome Powell at a policy conference in Chicago, due at 9:55 a.m. Eastern Time, will be very closely watched for any pushback against the rising consensus. More weaknessThere was disappointing data for the U.K. this morning, with retail sales declining the most on record in May, while the construction industry slowed the most in more than a year. The numbers come as President Donald Trump continues his visit to the country, where he urged his hosts to throw off the shackles of European Union membership and hinted at a trade deal. The euro area also failed to live up to expectations when the flash inflation estimate for May came in at 1.2%, which may increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to act at this week's policy meeting on Thursday. China warningAuthorities in Beijing have issued a travel advisory for its citizens planning to go to the U.S., citing frequent shootings, robbery and theft in America, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. A ministry spokesperson said "current circumstances" were the reason for the warning, with it coming after reports of increased U.S. scrutiny of Chinese academics and restrictions on study visas. On the face of it, this seems to be just the latest moves in the increasingly hostile trade war between the world's two largest economies, one that JPMorgan Chase says investors are still not fully pricing-in. Markets recoverOvernight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1% while Japan's Topix index closed broadly unchanged after a session that briefly saw the gauge erase its year to date gains. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3% higher at 5:50 a.m. with the world's least-loved equity market starting to finally find some fans as opportunity is seen in the beaten-down valuations. S&P futures pointed to a higher open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.102% and gold was flat. Coming up…As well as headliner Powell, we will also hear from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Lael Brainard today. April factory orders and durable goods orders numbers land at 10:00 a.m. President Trump's meeting with British Prime Minister Theresa May will be followed by a joint press conference. After yesterday's tech selloff, there should be interest in Salesforce.com Inc's earnings after the bell, which are expected to show year-on-year growth of 20%. What we've been readingThis is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morningI always know when the price of gold is doing well. It's not because I monitor the price all that closely, but rather it's because the gold-bug trolls start showing up on Twitter. So yes, as it turns out, the yellow metal is on a run again, as investors pile into the GLD ETF at the fastest pace in nearly three years. That said, the actual rally is impressively mediocre. The price of an ounce of gold is only up 3.5% so far this year. Not only that, it was higher mid February. Not only that, gold has been getting trounced by U.S. Treasuries. The Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Total Return Unhedged index is up 4.6% so far in 2019. Over the last year, gold is up by less than 3%, while Treasuries have returned over 7%. It's honestly astonishing that such a boring, slow-moving commodity can inspire such passion. The grain market is far more interesting. Now it's probably true that in the event of some kind of hyperinflationary financial Armageddon, gold might do better than some notes from the U.S. government (maybe). But in the normal course of market events, it's pretty astonishing how excited people get over such mild moves, especially given more exciting instruments, like U.S. Treasuries, that are available for you to bet on if you think things are going south.  Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more. | 
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