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Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open. Good morning. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are bubbling, Boris Johnson has his opponent for the final round and gold prices are surging. Here's what's moving markets.  `Loose and Stupid' U.S. President Donald Trump doesn't think Iran intentionally shot down a U.S. drone and that instead, the country made a "very bad mistake" possibly caused by a "loose and stupid" individual. Senators in the U.S. are looking into whether presidents have overstepped their authority in declaring war, and reports suggest Trump only pulled back on air strikes on Iran at the eleventh hour. Keep an eye on oil markets too, already coping with supply concerns and economic worries, if tensions in the Persian Gulf get worse given a third of the world's oil comes from the area. Two Remain Two enter. One will emerge victorious. Boris Johnson's place in the final pair of candidates to become the new leader of the U.K.'s Conservative Party has been a near-given since the race began. He'll face off against Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who just pipped Michael Gove to make the run-off. Now the campaign and the vetting of the candidates will begin, with questions likely to be raised about second referendums, hard Brexits and, of course, general elections. All after the Bank of England said fears about a no-deal exit in the market are rising, out of sync with the bank's assumptions. All That Glitters Gold's position as the safe haven of choice appears assured. In a week when central banks have turned even more dovish, economic sentiment has deteriorated and geopolitical tensions worldwide have risen, gold prices are going through the roof. Futures surpassed the $1,400 per ounce mark and are likely to provide some more support to gold miners when trading opens up in Europe and in South Africa. Dog Fight The Paris Air Show closed out with a set up for the next stage in the eternal battle for jet supremacy between Airbus SE and Boeing Co. Boeing, having come into the show under pressure to restore its reputation after the grounding of the 737 Max, scored the deal of the show with its $24 billion order from International Consolidated Airlines Group SA. Now, Airbus says it never got a request for proposals from IAG, currently an Airbus-only carrier. So, it plans to make a rival bid. Watch this space. Coming Up... Asian stocks were mixed on Friday but headed for the biggest weekly gain since January as investors embrace a more dovish central banking tone. The S&P 500 closed at a record high overnight. Oil prices pared advances after the report Trump had u-turned on Iranian air strikes. Euro-area PMI data will be due and, like all economic data from Europe right now, will be closely scrutinized for areas of weakness. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. The firm charging staff to use conference rooms. Deal hunters head to the world's happiest nation. Colombia is trying to appease the U.S. as cocaine production booms. Legendary rock riffs are up for grabs. The man building the Tesla of Thailand. Ladurée macarons are going vegan. A Norwegian city wants to get rid of clocks. And finally, here's what Mark Cudmore's interested in today The S&P 500 may have just made a fresh record but it won't survive a U.S. recession. Given the continuing deterioration in the economic data, surging equities strength, on the back of low U.S. yields, looks entirely unjustified, if history is any guide. It's true that lower yields support stock prices. I've often argued as such. Unfortunately, that input is entirely subsumed by recessions. The only two economic recessions of this century have coincided with deep bear markets in the S&P 500. And the fact that bond markets are pricing multiple Fed rates cuts doesn't provide confidence. The evidence from recent history is that Fed rate policy has only marginal impact on the economic cycle, and there are multiple reasons to argue why that impact is even less than normal now - not least due to QE and abundant liquidity. It's that liquidity which keeps assets elevated for longer, but if the economy and earnings both collapse, then stock prices will be like Wile E. Coyote - losing valuation support, running into a recession, and only then facing gravity. Mark Cudmore is a Bloomberg macro strategist and the Managing Editor of the Markets Live blog. Bloomberg Terminal users can follow him there at MLIV <GO> Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. 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