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Five Things - Europe
Bloomberg

Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open.

Good morning. This week's rally in Asia was halted as U.S.-China trade risks remain and protests continue in Hong Kong. European central bankers are on the speaker schedule, a fast-fashion powerhouse reports numbers, and Boris Johnson has been found. Here's what's moving markets.

It's Not You, It's Me

Stocks in Asia mostly edged down as U.S. President Donald Trump said he's the one holding up a trade deal with China. He reiterated his stance that there might be no trade deal at all. A Group of 20 summit at the end of this month is still seen as the most likely time for a breakthrough. The upheaval in Hong Kong also weighed on sentiment in Asia, as demonstrators threatened to bring the city to a standstill in the fight against proposed extradition legislation

Art of Trading

Trump says overcrowding at the Louvre in Paris is due to a cheap euro against the dollar, but investors are likely to be more interested in what European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi and a couple of his colleagues have to say at a speech in Frankfurt later. Two euro-zone rate setters indicated on Tuesday that the ECB is willing to cut interest rates and resume bond purchases if necessary. The euro edged higher overnight –- bad news for art lovers. 

Fast-Fashion Checkup

Spain's largest company by market value, Zara owner Inditex S.A., is likely to report that favorable foreign-exchange tailwinds benefited quarterly numbers for the first time in two years, according to analysts. Europe's fast-fashion retail stocks are coming back into focus, beating gains for broader benchmarks after a disastrous 2018 that was plagued by a summer heatwave and increased discounting. Swedish fashion giant H&M reports revenue next week.

Boris Is Back

Boris Johnson is not known for being quiet. But the former London mayor, who once attempted to ride a zip wire into a London park while waving a British flag, has gone uncharacteristically off the radar of late. That ends today, when the favorite to become U.K. prime minister is set to make a splash, kicking off his campaign with a vow to pull the country out of the European Union by Oct. 31. That's something that economists at Citigroup are warning clients will not be possible. 

Coming Up...

Broad U.S. consumer-price inflation is forecast to have slipped in May, following a slowdown in producer pricing revealed Tuesday, and might provide Trump further opportunity to berate Federal Reserve policymakers. There's also a rate decision from Turkey today. Meanwhile, in addition to Zara's numbers, we'll also get updates from U.K. online fashion firm Boohoo Group Plc and British American Tobacco Plc. 

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours: 

And finally, here's what Mark Cudmore is interested in this morning

Hong Kong protests, over a proposed extradition bill, are coinciding with outsized moves in local asset markets. While the USD/HKD spot exchange rate has fallen to the lowest level of 2019, the one-year outright USD/HKD exchange rate is at a three-year high. This dichotomy may seem surprising at first glance, but essentially there's a squeeze going on in local funding markets. This equates to rising USD/HKD swap rates. That has two follow-on impacts. It's supporting the Hong Kong dollar in the cash market and its putting downward pressure on the local stock market: The Hang Seng Index is a notable equities underperformer on Wednesday. The core political issue is too complex and nuanced for this piece. Suffice it to say that this author believes the current market stress will soon pass, but the potential tail-risks would be dramatic enough that all investors should be keeping a beady eye on proceedings.

Mark Cudmore is a Bloomberg macro strategist and the Managing Editor of the Markets Live blog. Bloomberg Terminal users can follow him there at MLIV <GO>

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