Today's Agenda  Threats to Trade Usually, Bloomberg Opinion columnists must at least wait a little while before they are proven correct. This time, it only took a weekend. Friday evening, we warned it would be dangerous to be too optimistic about a quick U.S.-China trade deal. Before the opening bell on Monday, China had matched President Donald Trump's trade-war escalation and threatened more. Stock prices plunged. The bond market is once again pricing in a Fed rate cut this year, notes Brian Chappatta (who still thinks it's unlikely). "This is the biggest trade war in modern American history," writes Noah Smith. He had thought the domestic pain of tariffs would cause Trump to quickly settle the immediate dispute, even if he couldn't resolve bigger issues. Now it seems Trump figures a trade war is either a) better politically than a truce; or b) the best way to stymie China's geopolitical ambitions. Either way, buckle up for a long slog, Noah writes. Everything seems to be on the table now, including China selling U.S. Treasuries. Because China is America's biggest foreign creditor, this has long been a nightmare scenario for economists, who fear it could boost U.S. interest rates. But it would be a mutually destructive "last resort" for China, Brian Chappatta has written. And Karl W. Smith argues it could ultimately work in Trump's favor by weakening the dollar and kicking U.S. banks into action. China might also curb orders of Boeing Co. jets. Brooke Sutherland writes a wholesale Boeing boycott probably won't happen, but China can easily make life more miserable for a company already struggling with the 737 Max grounding. The S&P 500 has lost roughly $1 trillion in value in the past week, notes Stephen Gandel. That may seem unjustified, given the size of the actual trade numbers involved. But a full-on trade war could hurt corporate profit margins enough to justify a further 14 percent decline in the S&P 500, Stephen writes. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., for example, has 99 problems, and sourcing many goods from China is one of the biggest, writes Sarah Halzack. Tyler Cowen suggests, because China is a poorer country trying to get out of the "middle-income" trap, a trade war will cost it more. Mohamed El-Erian agrees and still thinks China will cut a deal for that reason. But he also warns that, the longer this drags on, the less likely a broad deal becomes and the greater the uncertainty for investors. Threats to Peace Markets don't only have trade-war fears but also war-war worries. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. reported four oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for oil shipments (as you can see in the Elaine He graphic below). Oil prices jumped, but Julian Lee suggests the attacks seem "odd" and, barring further escalation, shouldn't threaten the global flow of oil.  Still, the attacks come at a time when the U.S. has been sending ships and weaponry into the region to worry Iran, part of a Trump administration crackdown on its regime. This includes economic sanctions that are squeezing Iran's economy. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj writes a "resistance economy" is trying to ease the pain – but it could also set back Iran's economic liberalization. This still seems unlikely to lead to an actual shooting war. For one thing, Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, a key Trump ally, probably doesn't want one, writes Zev Chafets. Israel would be on the front lines, and Netanyahu has reasons to keep the conflict at a low boil. Further Geopolitical Reading: Americans haven't turned away from internationalism yet, but may need reminders of why it matters. – Hal Brands Threats to Species And now a hopeful note: Yes, humanity is on track to destroy a million of the world's plant and animal species, as the UN reported last week. But Bloomberg's editorial board notes so-far meager actions to turn back this ugly tide have already shown results. Hopelessness is irresponsible, the editors write. Of course, that means leaders need to take action, at a time when the U.S. president refuses to admit climate change is a thing. But retired Admiral James Stavridis has spent some time at sea and can report: The ice caps are melting, and the national security risks of global warming are rising. Trump may be unconcerned, but the military and other Americans must respond, James writes. Bonus Editorial: Cory Booker has a plan to protect gun rights while also keeping guns out of the wrong hands. Threats to Unicorns Speaking of prescience, Bloomberg Opinion warned you Uber Technologies Inc.'s IPO would be a dud. Sure enough, after two days on the market, it's down nearly 19 percent from its IPO price. Matt Levine writes the former unicorn is getting a hard lesson in how going public exposes you to the real-time, warts-and-all view of your company; and for Uber lately that view is not very good. For one thing, growth in its main ride-sharing business is dimming. That means it needs food-delivery service Uber Eats to really crank up the numbers, writes Sarah Halzack. But that won't be easy either, given the fierce competition. Jared Dillian takes a 30,000-foot view of Uber, and it's not so pretty either. The company, he notes, can neither raise prices nor pay drivers less. And that gets at an even bigger-picture issue, Jared writes: Venture capitalists use super-low interest rates to raise money to pump into profit-shredding unicorns that subsidize consumer spending and keep inflation low. Synergy! Speaking of unicorn breeders, Uber investor SoftBank Vision Fund may have an IPO of its own soon. But remember, writes Tim Culpan: The Vision Fund has a hot potato it would like to sell you. Telltale Charts Some countries are better able to replace Iran's crude oil than others; Saudi Arabia is the biggest, writes Julian Lee (helped by this Elaine He chart).  Mark Gilbert writes it's little wonder capitalists are going vegan.  Further Reading Brett Kavanaugh's decision to join Supreme Court liberals and let Apple Inc. be sued over antitrust issues is a big deal. – Noah Feldman Trump probably can't stop local courts from imposing nationwide injunctions. – Noah Feldman Trump's stonewalling Congress sets a dangerous precedent. – Jonathan Bernstein The No-Deal Brexit is the White Walker of British politics: It refuses to die. – Therese Raphael Arbitrary caps on credit-card rates could cut off credit to people who need it. – Noah Smith ICYMI You need $2.3 million to be truly wealthy in America. California could go dark this summer. Trump used different rules to stifle Hudson River tunnel upgrades. Kickers Diver finds plastic bag in the Mariana Trench. (h/t Scott Kominers) The trouble with fathering 114 kids. All tasks should take 20 minutes. Note: Please send $2.3 million and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. New to Bloomberg Opinion Today? Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. | 
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