| Is Walt Disney Co. really going to go to war against Republican America? Is the Republican Party really ready to take on Disney?
Both Disney and Netflix Inc. are threatening to stop filming in Georgia if the state's new anti-abortion law goes into effect. It's not clear how serious either company is, or what the Supreme Court may say on the matter. But it would certainly be a big deal if companies started pulling out of states that impose stricter abortion laws. We've seen corporations take similar stands on issues such as "bathroom bills," and business pressure has been used to defeat some other conservative social positions in the past. But I don't remember any mainstream companies making this kind of threat before.
Abortion is simply different as a policy matter. For one thing, it's a central – perhaps the central – policy question for a lot of Republican party actors. And any issue that puts the business community on one side and Christian conservatives on another could very well break the party apart.
A major problem for Republicans in this fight, as usual, is the heavy influence of party-aligned media outlets. Politicians care about winning elections. So do governing professionals, party officials and campaign workers. They all have strong financial and career incentives to win. Even most party-aligned interest groups want to win so they can advance their priorities, enough so that they might be willing to make compromises to secure a majority.
It's not the same for party-aligned media. They can do just as well – or even better – if the party doesn't win. Lou Dobbs of the Fox Business Network, for example, is already calling on people to retaliate against Disney and Netflix. For a political party that needs to win majorities, taking on popular companies like that is risky. For a state government, it can be even riskier: Georgia has become a major hub for film production, for instance, and quite a few jobs could be at stake. But for a media figure with a relatively small audience it's a no-brainer: Even if Dobbs makes 100 enemies for every one new viewer, he can still get a million people to notice him and his ideas, however extreme. He comes out way ahead.
To some extent, the same is true for all news media, of course. What's especially dangerous for Republicans is that these media outlets are wielding growing influence within the party, even as their incentives diverge from winning elections.
More broadly, the truth is that we have no idea what post-Roe v. Wade abortion politics is going to look like. We're only now starting to get hints. I certainly don't know whether business boycotts – or reactions to business boycotts - will wind up being a significant factor. But, like it or not, it looks like we're about to find out.
1. Jennifer Spindel at the Monkey Cage on what Congress can do to block arms sales.
2. Rick Hasen on the Supreme Court and the census.
3. Dan Drezner on how long John Bolton will last. His speculation sounds correct to me.
4. Dave Hopkins on the demise of the presidential preference caucus, at least outside of Iowa and Nevada.
5. David Frum's argument against impeachment is a good one.
6. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague David Fickling on Donald Trump's newest tariffs.
7. And Nate Silver on the chances of candidates making it into the September Democratic debate.
Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. |
Post a Comment