| We're about to see a string of scare stories about a new government shutdown, a default on U.S. debt or both. The relevant deadlines aren't until the fall, but the warnings are already popping up. Here's some good news: There's no need to panic. Probably.
Of the three looming deadlines, the most dangerous is the debt limit. If Congress doesn't act by some point in the fall – exactly when depends on how fast the government spends money and how revenue rolls in – the U.S. will no longer be able to borrow and could be forced to default, with unknowable but frightening consequences. So far, though, there are no warning signs that either House Democrats or Senate Republicans are preparing for brinkmanship. And for now, the administration appears to just want to get it over with – although that could of course change.
The other deadlines involve spending bills, which need to be passed by the end of September. If they aren't, the government will shut down again and Congress will need to agree to cancel automatic cuts to both domestic and defense programs. Neither chamber even attempted to pass a budget resolution this year, let alone try to reach agreement on one. That doesn't mean that they won't manage to in the fall, but it does mean that the work still needs to be done.
Fortunately, these deadlines are easy to move – provided that no one wants a confrontation. Last year, a shutdown was postponed more than once between October and Christmas before talks eventually broke down. Delaying the spending bill deadline simply requires agreement on how much to spend while negotiations continue. Putting off the debt limit deadline is even easier; Congress just needs to pass a quick bill authorizing continued borrowing, either to a new date or a new debt level.
As far as an eventual shutdown or worse: The same logic always applies. The big rule of shutdowns is that eventually, whether it takes days or weeks or months, the government has to reopen. That means eventually all sides need to reach a deal. Extended shutdowns have only ever occurred when one side mistakenly believed it would gain significant additional leverage while the government was closed. It seems unlikely that either House Democrats or Senate Republicans would believe that this fall.
I'm less optimistic about the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. Both President Donald Trump and Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney are wild cards, capable of either botching negotiations or pushing for a shutdown or even a default. Senate Republicans would need to cooperate to make either happen, however, and they're the ones who pulled the plug on the last shutdown. So perhaps they've learned their lesson.
None of this is to suggest that this year's budget cycle will be a calm one. Democrats, who did relatively well in the past two years despite unified Republican government, are going to want to do better this year – and Republicans are going to resist them. Democrats could also try to use these must-pass bills as leverage in their oversight war with the White House by attaching restrictive riders. That would make for a particularly tough fight, since it's harder to compromise on that sort of thing than on spending levels. But the same rules would still apply: Eventually, some deal will have to be reached, and as long as neither side actively wants a shutdown, it's more likely than not that they'll get it done by the deadline (or extend the deadline).
In other words: Unless a group with a significant votes starts talking about how a shutdown or default would be a good thing, don't worry too much, no matter how many scare stories we see.
1. Richard Skinner at Mischiefs of Faction on Trump and Watergate. Very good comparison of two very different times.
2. Dan Drezner on Trump's trade wars.
3. Jared Bernstein also on Trump's trade wars.
4. Leah Litman on a Supreme Court majority that seems to have little respect for precedent.
5. Jonathan Chait on Republicans making stuff up about Representative Rashida Tlaib.
6. And the Atlantic's David A. Graham, Adrienne Green, Cullen Murphy and Parker Richards have compiled "An Oral History of Trump's Bigotry." Convincing.
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