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5 things to start your day

Growth concerns, Biden action on China, and developing world's Covid problem.

Uneven 

The epicenter for growth concern is Asia, where stuttering vaccine progress is overwhelmed by the resurgence of the coronavirus. Slowing loan growth in India and the Chinese crackdown on tech companies are adding to fears that post-pandemic recovery in the region will crawl rather than sprint. Prospects for growth in the U.S. remain much stronger, with JPMorgan Asset Management, BlackRock Inc. and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management all saying there are reasons for optimism

Home and away

President Joe Biden will sign a sweeping executive order designed to promote competition across American industries today. One target of the order will be shipping and rail industries which have become increasingly foreign owned and monopolized. There is also an order which would give consumers the "right-to-repair" goods they purchase. On the international front, the administration is set to keep the pressure on China's human rights record with the president set to add more entities to the economic blacklist as soon as today. 

Open and shut

The divide between developed and emerging country recoveries from the pandemic is becoming increasingly stark. Thailand banned gatherings of more than five people and introduced a nightly curfew as a surge in infections stretches the country's hospital system. Parts of South Africa are running out of coffins as Covid-19 related deaths surge. Of the last million deaths globally from the disease, 44% were in India and Brazil. The U.S. where more than 330 million vaccine doses have been administered accounted for only 4% of the last million deaths. 

Markets mixed

Global equites are ending the week a little directionless after the volatility of the last few days. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.4% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.4% lower. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.9% higher at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with every industry sector in the green as the gains were led by miners. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small rise at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 1.341%, oil was near $74 a barrel and gold held its ground above $1,800 an ounce. 

Coming up... 

The publication of the minutes from the latest European Central Bank at 7:30 a.m. has probably been overshadowed by yesterday's announcements from the bank. Canada reports its June unemployment numbers at 8:30 a.m. U.S. May wholesale inventories are at 10:00 a.m. and the latest Baker Hughes rig count is at 1:00 p.m. The G-20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Venice today is expected to back a deal on international corporate tax

What we've been reading

Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Emily's interested in this morning

Those familiar with the cult '90s book and film will appreciate that European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde hasn't broken Tyler Durden's directive ("You don't talk about fight club"). She was quick to point out that the ECB isn't invoking FAIT (the Fed's flexible average inflation targeting) with the strategy revamp it announced Thursday.

That hasn't stopped the comparisons. The ECB's review—its first in almost 20 years, and following 18 months' deliberation—did sound a little like it was following the Fed into the ring. European policy makers agreed to nudge up the inflation goal, and tolerate pressures running slightly above it (our Carolynn Look has the finer details).

Fed comparisons aside, there's plenty of skepticism out there to explain the wobbly market reaction to the ECB's message.  German yields edged higher, a move outpaced by those in Italy and Spain. That's a buy signal for peripheral markets, say Societe Generale's strategists, who expect the central bank will formalize its commitment to ultra-easy policy (continued asset purchases) at the July 22 meeting.  

TD Securities' European macro strategy team, which includes Jacqui Douglas, summed up the market's response to the ECB's "damp squib" this way:

"We don't believe that the results of the Review will change the ECB's response function in any meaningful way. And with no likely progress toward lifting inflation expectations, we think that it will still be a long slog to reach the inflation target."

Follow Bloomberg's Emily Barrett at @notthatECB

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